Showing posts with label Unbreakable Records. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Unbreakable Records. Show all posts

Friday, March 9, 2012

Why we'll never see another 30 game winner

Two years ago, many people were saying that Ubaldo Jimenez had a shot at winning 30 games. Looking back on it, this claim was implausible on so many different levels. People who didn't like Ubaldo's chances cited the declining number of IP/GS as a reason why this wasn't possible. However, even that does not actually explain why. The real reason is the decline in the number of starts in a season. Taking a look through the yearly leaderboards reveals that there hasn't been a pitcher to reach 36 starts since 2003, a 37 GS pitcher since 1991, and a 40 GS since 1987. Based on that logic, we would assume that a modern league leader would get 35 starts. In order to win 30 games in 35 starts, one would require a W/S% (win/start %) of .857. According to baseballbypositions.com, the last pitcher with a W/S% that high was Lefty Grove in 1931 (incidentally the second-to-last 30-win season). To put some more perspective on this, let's take a look at the most recent 25-game winnners (since 1969) and their number of games started: