Monday, November 30, 2020

Scheduling for the Alternate History Scenario

Here's a look at what current scheduling would look like for the alternate history scenario previously laid out:

Regular Season

Five conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10, and SEC) have ten schools and are able to play a nine-game single-round robin conference schedule. All five conferences play three non-conference games.

The American South Conference, with only nine schools, plays an eight-game single-round robin conference schedule. Each school plays four non-conference games.

The Big 12 and Sun Belt conferences each have two six-team divisions. Schools play the other five schools within their division each year; the six schools from the other division rotate to fill the four remaining conference games. Both conferences play three non-conference games.

The MAC, SWC and WAC each have two seven-team divisions. Each team plays the other six schools in its division each year; the seven teams from the other division are rotated to fill the three remaining conference games. All three conferences play three non-conference games.

Prominent Non-Conference Games

The following non-conference games are played annually prior to rivalry week: Florida - Miami (FL), Florida State - Miami (FL), Iowa - Iowa State, Notre Dame - Navy, Army - Air Force, Navy - Air Force, Brigham Young - Utah State, Utah - Utah State, New Mexico - New Mexico State, New Mexico State - Texas-El Paso

Rivalry Week

The weekend following Thanksgiving serves as rivalry week, the final week of the regular season. The current schedule is as follows for each conference:

Big East: Boston College - Syracuse, Connecticut - Rutgers, Pittsburgh - Penn State, Notre Dame - Miami*

ACC: North Carolina - Duke, North Carolina State - Wake Forest, Clemson - South Carolina

SEC: Alabama - Auburn, Mississippi - Mississippi State, Tennessee - Vanderbilt

Big 12: Texas - Texas A&M, Oklahoma - Oklahoma State, Colorado - Nebraska, Kansas - Kansas State, Missouri - Iowa State, Arkansas - Texas Tech

Big Ten: Michigan - Ohio State, Minnesota - Wisconsin, Purdue - Indiana, Illinois - Northwestern, Michigan State - Iowa

Pac-10: Washington - Washington State, Oregon - Oregon State, California - Stanford, California-Los Angeles - Southern California*, Arizona - Arizona State

SWC: Baylor - Texas Christian, Central Florida - South Florida, Southern Methodist - Rice, Houston - Tulsa, Cincinnati - Memphis, 

WAC: Brigham Young - Utah, New Mexico - Texas-El Paso, Nevada - Nevada-Las Vegas, Air Force - Colorado State, Fresno State - San Jose State, Boise State - San Diego State

Sun Belt: Florida Atlantic - Florida International, East Carolina - Marshall, Charlotte - Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee - Western Kentucky, Arkansas State - North Texas

ASC: Appalachian State - Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern - Georgia State, Texas-San Antonio - Texas State

MAC: Ball State - Northern Illinois, Central Michigan - Eastern Michigan - Western Michigan***, Miami (OH) - Ohio, Akron - Kent State, Bowling Green - Toledo, Temple - Massachusetts

Independents: Army - Navy

Non-Conference: Maryland - West Virginia, Virginia - Virginia Tech, Georgia - Georgia Tech, Florida - Florida State, Kentucky - Louisville, Louisiana State - Tulane, Notre Dame - Southern California**, Wyoming - Utah State, Hawaii - New Mexico State, Alabama-Birmingham - Troy, Southern Mississippi - Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Monroe - Louisiana-Lafayette, South Alabama - Liberty

*Odd-numbered years only; played before rivalry week in even-numbered years
**Even-numbered years only; played before rivalry week in odd-numbered years
***Two of these three teams play each other on a rotating basis; the third plays Buffalo in a cross-divisional game.

Conference Championships

The weekend after rivalry week serves as conference championship weekend, with the following games being held:

Big 12 Championship (Arlington, TX): Big 12 North #1 vs Big 12 South #1

WAC Championship (Las Vegas, NV): WAC East #1 vs WAC West #1

SWC Championship (New Orleans, LA): SWC East #1 vs SWC West #1

MAC Championship (Detroit, MI): MAC East #1 vs MAC West #1

Sun Belt Championship (Nashville, TN): Sun Belt East #1 vs Sun Belt West #1

December Bowl Games

The following non-major bowls are held between Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve, excluding Christmas Day and Sundays:

Hall of Fame Bowl (Tampa, FL): SEC #2 vs Big Ten #2

Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, TX): Pac-10 #2 vs Big 12 #2

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, FL): ACC #2 vs Big East #2

Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas, NV): WAC #2 vs SWC #2

Bluebonnet Bowl (Houston, TX): SWC #3 vs Big 12 #3

Peach Bowl (Atlanta, GA): SEC #3 vs ACC #3

Sun Bowl (El Paso, TX): WAC #3 vs Pac-10 #3

Music City Bowl (Nashville, TN): Big Ten #3 vs Big East #3

Liberty Bowl (Memphis, TN): SWC #4 vs SEC #4

Aloha Bowl (Honolulu, HI): WAC #4 vs Big Ten #4

Tangerine Bowl (Orlando, FL): ACC #4 vs Big East #4

Copper Bowl (Tucson, AZ): Pac-10 #4 vs Big 12 #4

Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA): Sun Belt #1 vs At-Large

All-American Bowl (Birmingham, AL): American South #1 vs At-Large

Motor City Bowl (Detroit, MI): MAC #1 vs At-Large

Note: Schools must have seven wins in order to be bowl-eligible. If a conference does not have enough bowl-eligible schools to fulfill its bid to a bowl game, that bid can be given to a bowl-eligible school from another conference.

Bowl Coalition Games

The following major bowl games are held on New Year's Day. If New Year's Day falls on a Sunday, then they are held on January 2nd:

Rose Bowl: Pac-10 #1 vs Big Ten #1

Holiday Bowl: WAC #1 vs At-Large

Fiesta Bowl: Big East #1 vs At-Large

Cotton Bowl: SWC #1 vs At-Large

Sugar Bowl: SEC #1 vs At-Large

Citrus Bowl: ACC #1 vs At-Large

Orange Bowl: Big 12 #1 vs At-Large

The six at-large bids are awarded to the six next highest ranked teams in the Bowl Poll, a simple adding of the points for each team in the AP and Coaches polls.

National Championship Game

After the bowl games, the Bowl Poll is recalculated based on the final AP and Coaches poll rankings. The top two teams then advance to the national championship game, to be held the first Saturday one full week after New Year's Day.



Monday, November 23, 2020

A College Football Alignment Alternate History Scenario

FBS Conference Alignment c. 2013 (click to enlarge)

Here's a timeline I've developed for an alternate history of college football realignment. This scenario begins with the conference alignment as it actually was in 1990, and proceeds as follows:

1991 - The Big East Conference begins sponsoring football, with ten schools playing in the inaugural season: Boston College, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia. All of these schools had previously played as independents.

1992 - Florida State drops its long-time independent status and joins the ACC. Additionally, South Carolina re-joins the ACC, bringing the conference to ten members. Another independent, Akron, joins the MAC as its 10th member. The Big West also experiences some changes, as Long Beach State drops football and Fresno State leaves for the WAC. However, the conference does add Division 1-A newcomer Nevada. Arkansas State also joins Division 1-A, as an independent.

In addition to this conference realignment, college football's postseason is also reformed. A Bowl Coalition is established, consisting of seven bowl games guaranteeing bids to the champions of the eight major conferences, as follows: Rose - Big Ten and Pac-10, Sugar - SEC, Orange - Big Eight, Cotton - SWC, Fiesta - Big East, Citrus - ACC, and Holiday - WAC. The remaining six at-large bids are awarded to the six next highest ranked teams in the "Bowl Poll", a simple adding of the points for each team in the AP and Coaches polls. Following the bowl games, the Bowl Poll is calculated again, with the two highest ranked teams playing each other in a national championship game.

1993 - More changes in the Big West, as Cal State Fullerton drops its football program, and Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Northern Illinois, and Southwest Louisiana - all previously independents - join the conference.

1994 - Northeast Louisiana joins Division 1-A as an independent.

1995 - North Texas joins Division 1-A as an independent.

1996 - Significant changes alter the landscape of college football forever. The Big Eight expands to become the Big 12, pulling Arkansas, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech from the Southwest Conference. The Big 12 becomes the first conference to establish a conference championship game, splitting into North and South Divisions. The SWC survives by adding five independents (Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis State, Tulane and Tulsa) to the five remaining Texas schools. Elsewhere, the WAC also expands to 12 schools, splits into divisions, and creates a conference championship game, adding San Jose State and UNLV from the Big West. The Big West - which also sees Pacific drop its football program and Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Northern Illinois and Southwest Louisiana all return to independent status - staves off extinction by adding independent North Texas as well as Division 1-A newcomers Boise State and Idaho. Lastly, UAB and Central Florida join Division 1-A as independents.

1997 - The MAC becomes the latest conference to expand to 12 schools, split into divisions, and establish a conference championship game, welcoming independent Northern Illinois and Division 1-A newcomer Marshall.

1999 - The Southwest Conference expands to 12 schools by adding independents UAB and Southern Miss. This allows the conference to split into divisions and establish a conference championship game. Elsewhere, Arkansas State rejoins the Big West as its seventh member. The MAC expands to 13 schools, adding Division 1-A newcomer Buffalo. Middle Tennessee State joins Division 1-A as an independent.

2000 - Connecticut and South Florida join Division 1-A as independents. Nevada leaves the Big West to become the WAC's 13th member.

2001 - The Big West finally drops football, leaving Idaho, New Mexico State and Utah State to play as independents. Boise State joins the WAC as its 14th member. Meanwhile, the Sun Belt Conference begins sponsoring football, with former Big West members Arkansas State and North Texas joining six schools that had been playing in Division 1-A as independents: East Carolina, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Middle Tennessee State, Central Florida and South Florida. Lastly, Troy joins Division 1-A as an independent.

2004 - Connecticut joins the Big East for football, becoming the 11th program. Florida Atlantic and Florida International join Division 1-A as independents.

2005 - Temple is expelled from the Big East and becomes an independent; the Big East returns to having just ten schools. The Southwest Conference expands to 14 schools by adding Central Florida and South Florida from the Sun Belt. The Sun Belt responds by adding independents Florida Atlantic and Florida International, as well as Marshall from the MAC.

2007 - The MAC gets back to 13 schools, welcoming independent Temple.

2008 - Western Kentucky joins FBS as an independent.

2009 - Western Kentucky becomes the 10th member of the Sun Belt Conference.

2012 - Four new schools join FBS. Three of them become independents - South Alabama, Texas State and UTSA. The fourth, UMass, joins the MAC as its 14th school.

2013 - Georgia State and Old Dominion join FBS as independents.

2014 - The arrival of Appalachian State and Georgia Southern to FBS leads the American South Conference to begin sponsoring football. They are joined by six schools that had been playing as independents: Georgia State, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, and UTSA. Meanwhile, Old Dominion joins the Sun Belt as its 11th member.

2015 - FBS newcomer Charlotte becomes the 12th Sun Belt member. The conference splits into divisions and creates a conference championship game.

2017 - Coastal Carolina joins the American South as an FBS newcomer, bringing the conference to nine schools.

2018 - Independent Idaho drops down to FCS. Liberty joins FBS as an independent.

2020 - The current FBS conference alignment is as follows:

American South Conference
Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas-San Antonio, Texas State, Troy

Atlantic Coast Conference
Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina State, South Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest

Big 12 Conference
South Division: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
North Division: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska

Big East Conference
Boston College, Connecticut, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia (plus Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova as non-football members)

Big Ten Conference
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Independents
Army, Liberty, Navy, New Mexico State, Utah State

Mid-American Conference
East Division: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts, Miami (OH), Ohio, Temple
West Division: Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

Pacific-10 Conference
Arizona, Arizona State, California, California-Los Angeles, Oregon, Oregon State, Southern California, Stanford, Washington, Washington State

Southeastern Conference
Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Southwest Conference
West Division: Baylor, Houston, Rice, Southern Methodist, Texas Christian,  Tulane, Tulsa
East Division: Alabama-Birmingham, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, South Florida, Southern Mississippi

Sun Belt Conference
East Division: Charlotte, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Marshall, Old Dominion
West Division: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, Western Kentucky

Western Athletic Conference
East Division: Air Force, Brigham Young, Colorado State, New Mexico, Texas-El Paso, Utah, Wyoming
West Division: Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, Nevada-Las Vegas, San Diego State, San Jose State