When I did my original college football realignment scenario two years ago, I noted the possibility that the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC could all expand to 16 teams, and that the Big 12 could cease to exist as a result. I thought today that it would be a good idea to explore what this could exactly look like, under a scenario where the Power conferences break off and form their own division separate from FBS (as has been discussed very recently).
The obvious approach would be to simply divide up the current Big 12 teams between the other four conferences. Let's see how that might play out:
West Virginia to ACC
West Virginia is the obvious choice to get the ACC to 16 schools (assuming we count Notre Dame as the 15th school). It's the only Big 12 school within ACC territory. It also is a former Big East school, like 6 current ACC members (Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Miami and Louisville).
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State to Big Ten
Iowa State is an obvious choice, as it's within the Big Ten's current footprint and has an in-state rivalry with Iowa. Kansas and Kansas State are less obvious, but are the schools that would allow the Big Ten to remain contiguous. Adding three schools would bring the Big Ten to 17 schools, but we can expel Rutgers (easily the weakest Power 5 program) to bring it down to 16.
Oklahoma, Texas to SEC
This is the big one. The SEC is arguably the preeminent conference in college football, and Oklahoma and Texas are the two preeminent programs in the Big 12, so this seems like the natural landing spot for them. Their rivlarly would remain a conference game, while Texas would be reunited with Texas A&M.
Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech to Pac-12
The Pac-12 basically gets the leftovers here. However, there is some coherence; the conference would still be contiguous, after all. Oklahoma State and Baylor used to play with Colorado in the Big 12. TCU and Utah played together in the Mountain West Conference for a few years. Finally, Texas Tech played in the Border Conference with Arizona and Arizona State way back in the day. At the very least, we're able to keep the TCU-Baylor rivalry together.
Now, we could stop here. But what if we also shifted some programs within this new Power 4 alignment too?:
Maryland, Penn State to ACC
Maryland was a founding ACC member, and fits better in the ACC geographically than the Big Ten. Penn State also fits better here, and has a number of potential rivalry games (Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and now West Virginia and Maryland)
Notre Dame, Missouri to Big Ten
Replacing Penn State and Maryland in the Big Ten are Notre Dame and Missouri. Although Notre Dame is playing in the ACC this season, from a rivalry and geography perspective the Big Ten makes more sense. Notre Dame is in-state with Big Ten schools Indiana and Purdue, and has significant rivalries with both Michigan and Michigan State. Meanwhile, Missouri fits better in this version of the Big Ten than in the SEC, especially since it would be rejoined with four former Big Eight foes.
Louisville to SEC
Louisville is the only permanent ACC member not located in an East Coast state. Joining the SEC, where in-state rival Kentucky plays, would make more sense.
Let's take a look at what our new conferences would look like:
North Division: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Penn State, West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech
South Division: UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami
The ACC would be restored to consisting entirely of teams on the East Coast. We could also get rid of the ridiculous Atlantic/Coastal divisional alignment. The North division has an old school Big East flavor to it, with five founding Big East members there plus newcomer Penn State and core ACC schools Maryland and Virginia. The South reunites the four Tobacco Road schools in the same division. Also reunited in the same division are Clemson-Georgia Tech and Florida State-Miami.
East Division: Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Louisville, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida
West Division: Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
The arrival of newcomers Oklahoma and Texas in the West pushes Alabama and Auburn to the East. We put Louisville in the East with in-state rival Kentucky. Vanderbilt is split from Tennessee and pushed to the West to keep the Alabama-Auburn pairing together. Texas rejoins old SWC rivals Texas A&M and Arkansas in the West. Both divisions are pretty stacked, with the East being perhaps a bit deeper.
East Division: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern.
West Division: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Iowa State, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State
The East is stacked with blue blood programs in the newly christened "Big 16", with Notre Dame replacing Penn State. Indiana and Purdue are no longer split between divisions, while Illinois and Northwestern also join the East to accommodate the newcomers out West. The West is now dominated by five former Big Eight schools, along with the Wisconsin-Minnesota-Iowa triumvirate.
East Division: Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech
West Division: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
This is basically an old school/new school split. The West consists of the original PCC/Pac-8 schools, while the East would include the schools to have joined since 1978.
In terms of scheduling, each team would play all seven of their divisional opponents every year, plus two cross-divisional games (which would rotate on a four-year schedule), for nine total conference games. They would also play three non-conference games, for twelve total regular season games.
The two divisional champions from each conference would play in a conference championship game. The winners of the four conference championships would receive automatic berths to the Rose or Sugar Bowls, which would serve as national semifinal games. Thus, you would have a de facto 8-team playoff.
As for the rest of the postseason bowls, we would match up each conference against each of the other three conferences twice, for six total bowl bids per conference. The bowl match-ups would be as follows:
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA): Pac-16 #1 vs Big 16 #1
Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, LA): SEC #1 vs. ACC #1
Orange Bowl (Miami Gardens, FL): ACC #2 vs. Big 16 #2
Cotton Bowl (Arlington, TX): SEC #2 vs. Pac-16 #2
Citrus Bowl (Orlando, FL): SEC #3 vs Big 16 #3
Fiesta Bowl Glendale, AZ): Pac-16 #3 vs. ACC #3
Holiday Bowl (San Diego, CA): Pac-16 #4 vs. Big 16 #4
Peach Bowl (Atlanta, GA): SEC #4 vs. ACC #4
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, FL): ACC #5 vs. Big 16 #5
Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, TX): SEC #5 vs. Pac-16 #5
Hall of Fame Bowl (Tampa, FL): SEC #6 vs. Big 16 #6
Sun Bowl (El Paso, TX): Pac-16 vs #6 vs. ACC #6
