Monday, November 30, 2020

Scheduling for the Alternate History Scenario

Here's a look at what current scheduling would look like for the alternate history scenario previously laid out:

Regular Season

Five conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10, and SEC) have ten schools and are able to play a nine-game single-round robin conference schedule. All five conferences play three non-conference games.

The American South Conference, with only nine schools, plays an eight-game single-round robin conference schedule. Each school plays four non-conference games.

The Big 12 and Sun Belt conferences each have two six-team divisions. Schools play the other five schools within their division each year; the six schools from the other division rotate to fill the four remaining conference games. Both conferences play three non-conference games.

The MAC, SWC and WAC each have two seven-team divisions. Each team plays the other six schools in its division each year; the seven teams from the other division are rotated to fill the three remaining conference games. All three conferences play three non-conference games.

Prominent Non-Conference Games

The following non-conference games are played annually prior to rivalry week: Florida - Miami (FL), Florida State - Miami (FL), Iowa - Iowa State, Notre Dame - Navy, Army - Air Force, Navy - Air Force, Brigham Young - Utah State, Utah - Utah State, New Mexico - New Mexico State, New Mexico State - Texas-El Paso

Rivalry Week

The weekend following Thanksgiving serves as rivalry week, the final week of the regular season. The current schedule is as follows for each conference:

Big East: Boston College - Syracuse, Connecticut - Rutgers, Pittsburgh - Penn State, Notre Dame - Miami*

ACC: North Carolina - Duke, North Carolina State - Wake Forest, Clemson - South Carolina

SEC: Alabama - Auburn, Mississippi - Mississippi State, Tennessee - Vanderbilt

Big 12: Texas - Texas A&M, Oklahoma - Oklahoma State, Colorado - Nebraska, Kansas - Kansas State, Missouri - Iowa State, Arkansas - Texas Tech

Big Ten: Michigan - Ohio State, Minnesota - Wisconsin, Purdue - Indiana, Illinois - Northwestern, Michigan State - Iowa

Pac-10: Washington - Washington State, Oregon - Oregon State, California - Stanford, California-Los Angeles - Southern California*, Arizona - Arizona State

SWC: Baylor - Texas Christian, Central Florida - South Florida, Southern Methodist - Rice, Houston - Tulsa, Cincinnati - Memphis, 

WAC: Brigham Young - Utah, New Mexico - Texas-El Paso, Nevada - Nevada-Las Vegas, Air Force - Colorado State, Fresno State - San Jose State, Boise State - San Diego State

Sun Belt: Florida Atlantic - Florida International, East Carolina - Marshall, Charlotte - Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee - Western Kentucky, Arkansas State - North Texas

ASC: Appalachian State - Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern - Georgia State, Texas-San Antonio - Texas State

MAC: Ball State - Northern Illinois, Central Michigan - Eastern Michigan - Western Michigan***, Miami (OH) - Ohio, Akron - Kent State, Bowling Green - Toledo, Temple - Massachusetts

Independents: Army - Navy

Non-Conference: Maryland - West Virginia, Virginia - Virginia Tech, Georgia - Georgia Tech, Florida - Florida State, Kentucky - Louisville, Louisiana State - Tulane, Notre Dame - Southern California**, Wyoming - Utah State, Hawaii - New Mexico State, Alabama-Birmingham - Troy, Southern Mississippi - Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Monroe - Louisiana-Lafayette, South Alabama - Liberty

*Odd-numbered years only; played before rivalry week in even-numbered years
**Even-numbered years only; played before rivalry week in odd-numbered years
***Two of these three teams play each other on a rotating basis; the third plays Buffalo in a cross-divisional game.

Conference Championships

The weekend after rivalry week serves as conference championship weekend, with the following games being held:

Big 12 Championship (Arlington, TX): Big 12 North #1 vs Big 12 South #1

WAC Championship (Las Vegas, NV): WAC East #1 vs WAC West #1

SWC Championship (New Orleans, LA): SWC East #1 vs SWC West #1

MAC Championship (Detroit, MI): MAC East #1 vs MAC West #1

Sun Belt Championship (Nashville, TN): Sun Belt East #1 vs Sun Belt West #1

December Bowl Games

The following non-major bowls are held between Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve, excluding Christmas Day and Sundays:

Hall of Fame Bowl (Tampa, FL): SEC #2 vs Big Ten #2

Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, TX): Pac-10 #2 vs Big 12 #2

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, FL): ACC #2 vs Big East #2

Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas, NV): WAC #2 vs SWC #2

Bluebonnet Bowl (Houston, TX): SWC #3 vs Big 12 #3

Peach Bowl (Atlanta, GA): SEC #3 vs ACC #3

Sun Bowl (El Paso, TX): WAC #3 vs Pac-10 #3

Music City Bowl (Nashville, TN): Big Ten #3 vs Big East #3

Liberty Bowl (Memphis, TN): SWC #4 vs SEC #4

Aloha Bowl (Honolulu, HI): WAC #4 vs Big Ten #4

Tangerine Bowl (Orlando, FL): ACC #4 vs Big East #4

Copper Bowl (Tucson, AZ): Pac-10 #4 vs Big 12 #4

Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA): Sun Belt #1 vs At-Large

All-American Bowl (Birmingham, AL): American South #1 vs At-Large

Motor City Bowl (Detroit, MI): MAC #1 vs At-Large

Note: Schools must have seven wins in order to be bowl-eligible. If a conference does not have enough bowl-eligible schools to fulfill its bid to a bowl game, that bid can be given to a bowl-eligible school from another conference.

Bowl Coalition Games

The following major bowl games are held on New Year's Day. If New Year's Day falls on a Sunday, then they are held on January 2nd:

Rose Bowl: Pac-10 #1 vs Big Ten #1

Holiday Bowl: WAC #1 vs At-Large

Fiesta Bowl: Big East #1 vs At-Large

Cotton Bowl: SWC #1 vs At-Large

Sugar Bowl: SEC #1 vs At-Large

Citrus Bowl: ACC #1 vs At-Large

Orange Bowl: Big 12 #1 vs At-Large

The six at-large bids are awarded to the six next highest ranked teams in the Bowl Poll, a simple adding of the points for each team in the AP and Coaches polls.

National Championship Game

After the bowl games, the Bowl Poll is recalculated based on the final AP and Coaches poll rankings. The top two teams then advance to the national championship game, to be held the first Saturday one full week after New Year's Day.



Monday, November 23, 2020

A College Football Alignment Alternate History Scenario

FBS Conference Alignment c. 2013 (click to enlarge)

Here's a timeline I've developed for an alternate history of college football realignment. This scenario begins with the conference alignment as it actually was in 1990, and proceeds as follows:

1991 - The Big East Conference begins sponsoring football, with ten schools playing in the inaugural season: Boston College, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia. All of these schools had previously played as independents.

1992 - Florida State drops its long-time independent status and joins the ACC. Additionally, South Carolina re-joins the ACC, bringing the conference to ten members. Another independent, Akron, joins the MAC as its 10th member. The Big West also experiences some changes, as Long Beach State drops football and Fresno State leaves for the WAC. However, the conference does add Division 1-A newcomer Nevada. Arkansas State also joins Division 1-A, as an independent.

In addition to this conference realignment, college football's postseason is also reformed. A Bowl Coalition is established, consisting of seven bowl games guaranteeing bids to the champions of the eight major conferences, as follows: Rose - Big Ten and Pac-10, Sugar - SEC, Orange - Big Eight, Cotton - SWC, Fiesta - Big East, Citrus - ACC, and Holiday - WAC. The remaining six at-large bids are awarded to the six next highest ranked teams in the "Bowl Poll", a simple adding of the points for each team in the AP and Coaches polls. Following the bowl games, the Bowl Poll is calculated again, with the two highest ranked teams playing each other in a national championship game.

1993 - More changes in the Big West, as Cal State Fullerton drops its football program, and Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Northern Illinois, and Southwest Louisiana - all previously independents - join the conference.

1994 - Northeast Louisiana joins Division 1-A as an independent.

1995 - North Texas joins Division 1-A as an independent.

1996 - Significant changes alter the landscape of college football forever. The Big Eight expands to become the Big 12, pulling Arkansas, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech from the Southwest Conference. The Big 12 becomes the first conference to establish a conference championship game, splitting into North and South Divisions. The SWC survives by adding five independents (Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis State, Tulane and Tulsa) to the five remaining Texas schools. Elsewhere, the WAC also expands to 12 schools, splits into divisions, and creates a conference championship game, adding San Jose State and UNLV from the Big West. The Big West - which also sees Pacific drop its football program and Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Northern Illinois and Southwest Louisiana all return to independent status - staves off extinction by adding independent North Texas as well as Division 1-A newcomers Boise State and Idaho. Lastly, UAB and Central Florida join Division 1-A as independents.

1997 - The MAC becomes the latest conference to expand to 12 schools, split into divisions, and establish a conference championship game, welcoming independent Northern Illinois and Division 1-A newcomer Marshall.

1999 - The Southwest Conference expands to 12 schools by adding independents UAB and Southern Miss. This allows the conference to split into divisions and establish a conference championship game. Elsewhere, Arkansas State rejoins the Big West as its seventh member. The MAC expands to 13 schools, adding Division 1-A newcomer Buffalo. Middle Tennessee State joins Division 1-A as an independent.

2000 - Connecticut and South Florida join Division 1-A as independents. Nevada leaves the Big West to become the WAC's 13th member.

2001 - The Big West finally drops football, leaving Idaho, New Mexico State and Utah State to play as independents. Boise State joins the WAC as its 14th member. Meanwhile, the Sun Belt Conference begins sponsoring football, with former Big West members Arkansas State and North Texas joining six schools that had been playing in Division 1-A as independents: East Carolina, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Middle Tennessee State, Central Florida and South Florida. Lastly, Troy joins Division 1-A as an independent.

2004 - Connecticut joins the Big East for football, becoming the 11th program. Florida Atlantic and Florida International join Division 1-A as independents.

2005 - Temple is expelled from the Big East and becomes an independent; the Big East returns to having just ten schools. The Southwest Conference expands to 14 schools by adding Central Florida and South Florida from the Sun Belt. The Sun Belt responds by adding independents Florida Atlantic and Florida International, as well as Marshall from the MAC.

2007 - The MAC gets back to 13 schools, welcoming independent Temple.

2008 - Western Kentucky joins FBS as an independent.

2009 - Western Kentucky becomes the 10th member of the Sun Belt Conference.

2012 - Four new schools join FBS. Three of them become independents - South Alabama, Texas State and UTSA. The fourth, UMass, joins the MAC as its 14th school.

2013 - Georgia State and Old Dominion join FBS as independents.

2014 - The arrival of Appalachian State and Georgia Southern to FBS leads the American South Conference to begin sponsoring football. They are joined by six schools that had been playing as independents: Georgia State, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, and UTSA. Meanwhile, Old Dominion joins the Sun Belt as its 11th member.

2015 - FBS newcomer Charlotte becomes the 12th Sun Belt member. The conference splits into divisions and creates a conference championship game.

2017 - Coastal Carolina joins the American South as an FBS newcomer, bringing the conference to nine schools.

2018 - Independent Idaho drops down to FCS. Liberty joins FBS as an independent.

2020 - The current FBS conference alignment is as follows:

American South Conference
Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas-San Antonio, Texas State, Troy

Atlantic Coast Conference
Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina State, South Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest

Big 12 Conference
South Division: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
North Division: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska

Big East Conference
Boston College, Connecticut, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia (plus Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova as non-football members)

Big Ten Conference
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Independents
Army, Liberty, Navy, New Mexico State, Utah State

Mid-American Conference
East Division: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts, Miami (OH), Ohio, Temple
West Division: Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

Pacific-10 Conference
Arizona, Arizona State, California, California-Los Angeles, Oregon, Oregon State, Southern California, Stanford, Washington, Washington State

Southeastern Conference
Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Southwest Conference
West Division: Baylor, Houston, Rice, Southern Methodist, Texas Christian,  Tulane, Tulsa
East Division: Alabama-Birmingham, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, South Florida, Southern Mississippi

Sun Belt Conference
East Division: Charlotte, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Marshall, Old Dominion
West Division: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, Western Kentucky

Western Athletic Conference
East Division: Air Force, Brigham Young, Colorado State, New Mexico, Texas-El Paso, Utah, Wyoming
West Division: Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, Nevada-Las Vegas, San Diego State, San Jose State

Monday, October 19, 2020

What if?: Four 16-Team Superconferences

When I did my original college football realignment scenario two years ago, I noted the possibility that the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC could all expand to 16 teams, and that the Big 12 could cease to exist as a result. I thought today that it would be a good idea to explore what this could exactly look like, under a scenario where the Power conferences break off and form their own division separate from FBS (as has been discussed very recently).

The obvious approach would be to simply divide up the current Big 12 teams between the other four conferences. Let's see how that might play out:

West Virginia to ACC

West Virginia is the obvious choice to get the ACC to 16 schools (assuming we count Notre Dame as the 15th school). It's the only Big 12 school within ACC territory. It also is a former Big East school, like 6 current ACC members (Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Miami and Louisville).

Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State to Big Ten

Iowa State is an obvious choice, as it's within the Big Ten's current footprint and has an in-state rivalry with Iowa. Kansas and Kansas State are less obvious, but are the schools that would allow the Big Ten to remain contiguous. Adding three schools would bring the Big Ten to 17 schools, but we can expel Rutgers (easily the weakest Power 5 program) to bring it down to 16.

Oklahoma, Texas to SEC

This is the big one. The SEC is arguably the preeminent conference in college football, and Oklahoma and Texas are the two preeminent programs in the Big 12, so this seems like the natural landing spot for them. Their rivlarly would remain a conference game, while Texas would be reunited with Texas A&M.

Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech to Pac-12

The Pac-12 basically gets the leftovers here. However, there is some coherence; the conference would still be contiguous, after all. Oklahoma State and Baylor used to play with Colorado in the Big 12. TCU and Utah played together in the Mountain West Conference for a few years. Finally, Texas Tech played in the Border Conference with Arizona and Arizona State way back in the day. At the very least, we're able to keep the TCU-Baylor rivalry together.

Now, we could stop here. But what if we also shifted some programs within this new Power 4 alignment too?:

Maryland, Penn State to ACC

Maryland was a founding ACC member, and fits better in the ACC geographically than the Big Ten. Penn State also fits better here, and has a number of potential rivalry games (Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and now West Virginia and Maryland)

Notre Dame, Missouri to Big Ten

Replacing Penn State and Maryland in the Big Ten are Notre Dame and Missouri. Although Notre Dame is playing in the ACC this season, from a rivalry and geography perspective the Big Ten makes more sense. Notre Dame is in-state with Big Ten schools Indiana and Purdue, and has significant rivalries with both Michigan and Michigan State. Meanwhile, Missouri fits better in this version of the Big Ten than in the SEC, especially since it would be rejoined with four former Big Eight foes.

Louisville to SEC

Louisville is the only permanent ACC member not located in an East Coast state. Joining the SEC, where in-state rival Kentucky plays, would make more sense.

Let's take a look at what our new conferences would look like:

ACC
North Division: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Penn State, West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech
South Division: UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami

The ACC would be restored to consisting entirely of teams on the East Coast. We could also get rid of the ridiculous Atlantic/Coastal divisional alignment. The North division has an old school Big East flavor to it, with five founding Big East members there plus newcomer Penn State and core ACC schools Maryland and Virginia. The South reunites the four Tobacco Road schools in the same division. Also reunited in the same division are Clemson-Georgia Tech and Florida State-Miami.

SEC
East Division: Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Louisville, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida
West Division: Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

The arrival of newcomers Oklahoma and Texas in the West pushes Alabama and Auburn to the East. We put Louisville in the East with in-state rival Kentucky. Vanderbilt is split from Tennessee and pushed to the West to keep the Alabama-Auburn pairing together. Texas rejoins old SWC rivals Texas A&M and Arkansas in the West. Both divisions are pretty stacked, with the East being perhaps a bit deeper.

Big 16
East Division: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern.
West Division: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Iowa State, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State

The East is stacked with blue blood programs in the newly christened "Big 16", with Notre Dame replacing Penn State. Indiana and Purdue are no longer split between divisions, while Illinois and Northwestern also join the East to accommodate the newcomers out West. The West is now dominated by five former Big Eight schools, along with the Wisconsin-Minnesota-Iowa triumvirate.

Pac-16
East Division: Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech
West Division: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

This is basically an old school/new school split. The West consists of the original PCC/Pac-8 schools, while the East would include the schools to have joined since 1978.

In terms of scheduling, each team would play all seven of their divisional opponents every year, plus two cross-divisional games (which would rotate on a four-year schedule), for nine total conference games. They would also play three non-conference games, for twelve total regular season games.

The two divisional champions from each conference would play in a conference championship game. The winners of the four conference championships would receive automatic berths to the Rose or Sugar Bowls, which would serve as national semifinal games. Thus, you would have a de facto 8-team playoff.

As for the rest of the postseason bowls, we would match up each conference against each of the other three conferences twice, for six total bowl bids per conference. The bowl match-ups would be as follows:

National Championship: Rose Bowl champion vs. Sugar Bowl champion

Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA): Pac-16 #1 vs Big 16 #1
Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, LA): SEC #1 vs. ACC #1

Orange Bowl (Miami Gardens, FL): ACC #2 vs. Big 16 #2
Cotton Bowl (Arlington, TX): SEC #2 vs. Pac-16 #2

Citrus Bowl (Orlando, FL): SEC #3 vs Big 16 #3
Fiesta Bowl Glendale, AZ): Pac-16 #3 vs. ACC #3

Holiday Bowl (San Diego, CA): Pac-16 #4 vs. Big 16 #4
Peach Bowl (Atlanta, GA): SEC #4 vs. ACC #4

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, FL): ACC #5 vs. Big 16 #5
Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, TX): SEC #5 vs. Pac-16 #5

Hall of Fame Bowl (Tampa, FL): SEC #6 vs. Big 16 #6
Sun Bowl (El Paso, TX): Pac-16 vs #6 vs. ACC #6

BCS-Plus: A College Football Postseason Reform Alternative

The College Football Playoff replaced the much-maligned BCS system for organizing college football's postseason in 2014, and it seems that there is no going back. Most discussions about reforming this system focus on expanding the playoff from four to eight schools. The common proposal here is to guarantee bids for each Power 5 conference champion, the highest ranked Group of 5 school, and two at-large schools.

However, I recently started thinking about what the college football postseason might look like if the BCS system still existed in some form, with reforms. What I came up with consisted of three core changes from the BCS system:

1. The moving of the #1 vs #2 national championship game to after the bowl games.

2. The expansion of the BCS from 4 to 8 bowl games.

3. The replacement of the BCS poll with a committee ranking, similar to the current CFP approach.

On the first point, it's worth noting that the main goal of the BCS (like the Bowl Coalition and Bowl Alliance before it) was to produce a #1 vs #2 national championship game. Originally this was done in one of the bowl games themselves (Rose, Orange, Sugar or Fiesta), and later was made into its own game separate from the bowls. But what if this match-up was a plus-one game that took place after the bowls? This would allow the bowl games to be used to determine who the #1 vs #2 match-up should be, as the rankings could be redone one final time after the bowls. This is similar to the CFP approach, but would mean that theoretically any two teams could be selected for the national championship, not just the four teams who play the semifinal bowls. This would give each Power 5 conference champ a shot at the title, along with Group of 5 teams, without necessarily having an eight-team playoff. Additionally, more bowl games would be relevant to the national title conversation in any given season, at least three if not four or more.

Expanding from 4 to 8 bowl games would increase the overall number of high-quality bowl match-ups, especially when at-large berths are in play. In addition to the four original BCS bowls, we could see the Peach and Fiesta bowls (which are part of the CFP's New Year's Six), the Citrus Bowl in Orlando (which was considered as a potential BCS bowl), and the Holiday Bowl in San Diego (which was a finalist for being a CFP bowl site). Under this proposal, we would guarantee bids for the five Power 5 conference champions, the next highest ranked team from each Power 5 conference, a Group of 5 school, and five at-large bids. The selection process would be as follows:

1. Power 5 conference champions are assigned to designated bowl games (Big Ten/Pac-12 to Rose, ACC to Orange, SEC/Big 12 to Sugar)

2. Next highest ranked team receives the at-large bid to the Orange Bowl.

3. Next highest ranked team from each Power 5 conference is assigned to their designated bowl game (Big Ten/SEC to Citrus, ACC to Peach, Big 12 to Cotton, Pac-12 to Holiday).

4. Highest ranked (remaining) Group of 5 school is assigned to Fiesta Bowl.

5. Bowl games with unfilled at-large bids (Peach, Cotton, Holiday, Fiesta) are assigned order of selection based on the ranking of their auto-bid team.

6. At-large bids are assigned, based on rankings, down the order of selection, avoiding match-ups of teams from same conference/regular season rematches as needed.

Compared to the current New Year's Six Bowls, this would produce more top-10 and top-16 bowl match-ups. Here are the possible scenarios during the CFP era, using the actual conference champions and CFP rankings:

2014
Rose: #2 Oregon vs #4 Ohio State
Sugar: #1 Alabama vs #5 Baylor
Orange: #3 Florida State vs #6 TCU
Citrus: #7 Miss. St. vs #8 Michigan State
Holiday: #10 Arizona vs #9 Ole Miss
Cotton: #11 Kansas State vs #13 Georgia
Peach: #12 Georgia Tech vs #14 UCLA
Fiesta: #20 Boise St. vs #15 Arizona St.

2015
Rose: #6 Stanford vs #3 Michigan State
Sugar: #2 Alabama vs #4 Oklahoma
Orange: #1 Clemson vs #5 Iowa
Citrus: #12 Ole Miss vs #7 Ohio State
Peach: #9 Florida State vs #8 Notre Dame
Cotton: #11 TCU vs #10 UNC
Holiday: #15 Oregon vs #13 Northwestern
Fiesta: #18 Houston vs #14 Michigan

2016

Rose: #4 Washington vs #5 Penn State
Sugar: #1 Alabama vs #7 Oklahoma
Orange: #2 Clemson vs #3 Ohio State
Citrus: #14 Auburn vs #6 Michigan
Holiday: #9 USC vs #8 Wisconsin
Peach: #11 Florida State vs #10 Colorado
Cotton: #12 Okla. St. vs #13 Louisville
Fiesta: #15 W. Michigan vs #16 West Virginia

2017
Rose: #8 USC vs #5 Ohio State
Sugar: #3 Georgia vs #2 Oklahoma
Orange: #1 Clemson vs #4 Alabama
Citrus: #7 Auburn vs #6 Wisconsin
Peach: #10 Miami vs #9 Penn State
Holiday: #11 Wash. vs #14 Notre Dame
Fiesta: #12 UCF vs #13 Stanford
Cotton: #15 TCU vs #16 Michigan State

2018

Rose: #9 Washington vs #6 Ohio State
Sugar: #1 Alabama vs #4 Oklahoma
Orange: #2 Clemson vs #3 Notre Dame
Citrus: #5 Georgia vs #7 Michigan
Fiesta: #8 UCF vs #10 Florida
Holiday: #13 Wash. St. vs #11 LSU
Cotton: #15 Texas vs #12 Penn State
Peach: #20 Syracuse vs #14 Kentucky

2019
Rose: #6 Oregon vs #2 Ohio State
Sugar: #1 LSU vs #4 Oklahoma
Orange: #3 Clemson vs #5 Georgia
Citrus: #9 Florida vs #8 Wisconsin
Cotton: #7 Baylor vs #10 Penn State
Holiday: #11 Utah vs #12 Auburn
Fiesta: #17 Memphis vs #13 Alabama
Peach: #24 Virginia vs #14 Michigan

This system can also be applied retroactively to the BCS era itself. Because of the existence of the Big East, that conference would get the auto-bid to the Orange Bowl in place of the at-large berth, and their second team would go the Gator Bowl, which would serve as the ninth BCS bowl. Thus, the selection process would have been as follows:

1. Conference champions from AQ conferences are assigned to designated bowl games (Big Ten/Pac-10 to Rose, Big East/ACC to Orange, SEC/Big 12 to Sugar)

2. Highest ranked non-champion from each AQ conference is assigned to their designated bowl game (Big Ten/SEC to Citrus, ACC to Peach, Big 12 to Cotton, Big East to Gator, Pac-10 to Holiday).

3. Highest ranked non-AQ school is assigned to Fiesta Bowl.

4. Bowl games with at-large bids (Peach, Cotton, Gator, Holiday, Fiesta) are assigned order of selection based on the ranking of their auto-bid team.

5. At-large bids are assigned, based on rankings, down the order of selection, avoiding match-ups of teams from same conference/regular season rematches as needed.

Compared to the CFP era, using this system in the BCS era would have been more chaotic, due to the absence of the at-large bid in the Orange Bowl and the greater unevenness between conferences. Also, some of the stronger non-AQ schools (ie Utah and TCU) have since made their way into Power 5 conferences. Thus, we could have expected more bowl games (and more teams) to have been relevant to determining the national title game match-up.

Yet Another College Football Realignment Scheme: The 1991 Scenario

I have already posted multiple college football realignment proposals, but constantly come up with more, so here I am yet again. This proposal returns to the 8 10-team conference concept I've visited before. In this case, I've drawn heavily on the actual alignment scheme from the 1991 season, with a few modifications. I've chosen 1991 for a few reasons: 1) this was the first year that the Big East sponsored football; 2) this was the last year before the SEC expanded and split into divisions; 3) Penn State had not yet joined the Big Ten; and 4) the Southwest Conference still existed. 

Here's what I've come up with:

Big Ten
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa

SEC
Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, LSU

Pac-10
Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State

These three conferences would all just be their alignments exactly as they were in 1991.

SWC
Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, SMU, Rice, Houston, Arkansas, Tulane

The reborn Southwest Conference would consist of the 9 teams it had in 1991, along with one newcomer: Tulane. Tulane seems like a reasonable pick here. Geographically, Louisiana borders on both Arkansas and Texas, and adding Tulane would bring both the New Orleans media market and the state's recruiting territory more into the fold. Tulane is a private school like 4 existing SWC schools (Baylor, TCU, SMU, and Rice), and the school was cited as a potential expansion pick for the SWC at the end of it's existence. Lastly, Tulane does have an SEC pedigree, having been a founding member.

ACC
Maryland, Virginia, UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida State

The ACC would consist of the eight schools here in 1991, with two additions to get it to 10. Florida State is an obvious choice here, since they joined the ACC the following year anyway. South Carolina rejoins the ACC in this scenario, where it was a founding member, instead of joining the SEC. This restores the Clemson-South Carolina rivalry as a conference game.

Big Eight
Iowa State, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Utah, BYU

This one was slightly more challenging, as the Big Eight obviously had only 8 teams in 1991. Utah and BYU are the additions here. While this does expand the Big Eight's footprint, Utah does border on Colorado so it's not a huge deal. Utah currently plays in the Pac-12 with Colorado, and since the Pac-10 already has 10 schools this is only other logical place to put them. Adding BYU with Utah allows that rivalry to become a conference game. It's also worth noting that BYU was mentioned as a possible school to the join the Big 12 during the Big Eight/SWC merger talks.

Big East
Boston College, Syracuse, Rutgers, Temple, Penn State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame

This version of the Big East consists of the founding football members from 1991, plus two additions: Penn State and Notre Dame. Penn State fits well here both geographically and in terms of potential rivalry games, especially since they're locked out of the Big Ten in this scenario. As I've previously mentioned, Penn State missed admission to the Big East during the 1980s by one vote. Notre Dame also works well, as they are another strong independent program, similar in profile to Miami and Penn State pre-1991. Also worth noting that Notre Dame was a Big East member in all sports except football for quite a while. These two additions make this conference much stronger and more viable than the actual Big East was in practice.

American
Army, Navy, UCF, USF, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Air Force, Boise State, San Diego State

This is the one conference I had to make up from scratch, as no such alignment remotely existed in 1991. These are some of the strongest Group of 5 schools currently. Five schools here currently play in the American (Navy, UCF, USF, Cincinnati, and Memphis), while Louisville was a founding member before joining the ACC the following year. Joining Navy here are the other two service academies. Boise State and San Diego State were two of the schools the Big East tried to recruit as it was collapsing and transitioning to the American. Despite having only one current Power 5 school, this conference had 6 different schools finish in the final AP top 25 in 2019.

In terms of the postseason bowls, this proposal would use the same regional structure as my previous eight 10-team conference alignment, with the following conferences corresponding to each region's bowls:

West: Pac-10 vs. Big Ten
Southwest: SWC vs. Big Eight
Southeast: SEC vs. ACC
East: Big East vs American

One difference here is that I would use a similar playoff structure as I proposed for the 96-team alignment. So the quarterfinals would be:

Rose Bowl: Pac-10 vs. Big Ten
Cotton Bowl: SWC vs. Big Eight
Sugar Bowl: SEC vs. ACC
Orange Bowl: Big East vs American

As before, the Rose and Cotton Bowl winners would play in the Fiesta Bowl, and the Sugar and Orange winners would play in the Peach Bowl. The Fiesta and Peach winners would play in the national championship game.

Because the Fiesta and Peach Bowls are serving as semifinals, the Las Vegas and Independence Bowls replace them in their respective regions. Also, with the Rose, Cotton, Sugar and Orange Bowls serving as quarterfinals, the fifth place team in each conference would not get a bowl berth in this scenario.


A Modification to My Radical Realignment Scheme

Earlier this year, I published what I termed a "radical" realignment scheme for college football, consisting of 16 6-team conferences that would play double-round robin conference schedules. At the time, I mentioned that the postseason could simply be a seeded, 16-team "March Madness"-style playoff tournament consisting of the conference champions. However, I realize that a different approach may actually prove even more interesting.

Each of the 16 6-team conferences can easily be paired with another to form a two-division, 12-team conference. Here's what that would look like:

Pacific 12 Conference
North Division: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, BYU
South Division: Stanford, Cal, UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State

Mountain West Conference
West Division: Hawaii, San Jose State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Nevada, UNLV
Mountain Division: Boise State, Utah State, Wyoming, Colorado State, Air Force, New Mexico

Big 12 Conference
North Division: Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Arkansas
South Division: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Houston

Big Ten Conference
West Division: Minnesota, Iowa, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois
East Division: Purdue, Indiana, Notre Dame, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State

Big East Conference
West Division: Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt, Penn State, West Virginia, Maryland
East Division: UConn, UMass, Army, Rutgers, Temple, Navy

Atlantic Coast Conference
North Division: Virginia, Virginia Tech, UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest
South Division: Clemson, South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Florida, Miami

Southeastern Conference
South Division: LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia
North Division: Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

American Athletic Conference
East Division: Appalachian State, East Carolina, Central Florida, South Florida, FAU, FIU
West Division: Tulsa, TCU, Baylor, Rice, SMU, Tulane

Under this modified proposal, each division would still play a double-round robin regular season schedule. The winner of each division would play each other for the conference championship. The winners of each conference championship would advance to the playoff quarterfinals, with set bowl match-ups against another conference champion, as follows:

Rose Bowl: Pac-12 vs Big Ten
Cotton Bowl: Mountain West vs American
Sugar Bowl: SEC vs Big 12
Orange Bowl: ACC vs Big East

The semifinals would pit the Rose and Cotton Bowl winners against each other in the Fiesta Bowl, while the Sugar and Orange Bowl winners would play in the Peach Bowl. The winners of the Fiesta and Peach Bowls would then play each other for the national championship.

In addition to the playoff bowls, each conference would send three other teams to bowl games, for a total of 32 bowl berths among the 96 teams in this proposal. The conference championship losers would play in the following bowl games:

Holiday Bowl: Pac-12 vs Big Ten
Bluebonnet Bowl: Mountain West vs American
Liberty Bowl: SEC vs Big 12
Citrus Bowl: ACC vs Big East

The runners-up in each division per conference would play each other in a play-in game for the next set of bowls:

Aloha Bowl: Pac-12 vs Big Ten
Sun Bowl: Mountain West vs American
All-American Bowl: SEC vs Big 12
Gator Bowl: ACC vs Big East

Finally, the third place finishers in each division would also play each other for the spots in this set of bowls:

Las Vegas Bowl: Pac-12 vs Big Ten
Alamo Bowl: Mountain West vs American
Independence Bowl: SEC vs Big 12
Hall of Fame Bowl: ACC vs Big East


Tuesday, July 14, 2020

An Even More Radical College Football Realignment Scheme

Nearly two years ago, I laid out my proposal for a dramatic realignment of the FBS level of NCAA football. Today, inspired by Sports Illustrated's recent (and, frankly, awful) realignment plan, I've gone back to the drawing board and come up with something even more radical than before. After playing around with ideas for modifying the existing conference structures, I kept coming up with a group of six northeastern schools that would be difficult to fit into conferences: UConn, UMass, Army, Rutgers, Temple, and Navy. I thought it would be interesting if they had a little conference of their own, and even more interesting if they played a double-round robin conference schedule (ie two games against each conference opponent, one home and one away, for a total of ten conference games). Spurred on by this idea, I decided to try to see if I could do something similar with other groupings of schools. This is what formed the basis of the proposal laid out below.

As I've already mentioned the core concept here is the six-team conference playing a double round-robin schedule. From this, I was able to come up with 16 such conferences, for a total of 96 schools. This includes every Power Five school, all of the schools from the Mountain West and American Conferences, and some independent, CUSA and Sun Belt Conference schools to round out the list. As I see it, this plan represents a throwback to the past, a continuation of current trends, and something completely novel all at once.

In terms of being a return to college football tradition, the conferences are all heavily based on geography, and more specifically geographic rivalries. This is a far cry from the sprawling, geographically nonsensical conference alignments of the present day (why on Earth is West Virginia in the Big 12??). Travel distances would be greatly reduced in every conference, with most schools not having to go more than a state or two over to play a conference game. In the age of COVID-19, this kind of arrangement may well become necessary to begin with.

As a continuation of current trends, this proposal would see the expansion of the College Football Playoff from four to sixteen teams. Let's consider that an expansion to eight teams is almost an inevitability at this point, so sixteen isn't really all that far-fetched, and would only meaning adding one potential game to a given team's schedule if we get rid of conference championship games. I for one would love to see a "March Madness" style FBS tournament, especially if it gives smaller schools an opportunity to play Cinderella while still generally seeing the blue bloods come out on top, as this proposal likely would.

The novel element of this plan is the double round-robin conference schedule. As far as I'm aware this has not been implemented by an FBS conference before, certainly not in recent times. Usually the only time two teams would play each other twice is if they met again in a conference title game. The only example I could find of this being done intentionally in the regular season is the current series between New Mexico State and Liberty - and that one is only because both teams are independents who need to fill out their schedules. Yet I don't think this plan is as outlandish as it may seem at first. Divisional rivals in the NFL get to play each other twice despite playing only a 16-game schedule, and college basketball conferences have traditionally used a double round-robin format. I don't think anyone would argue that getting to see a Cowboys-Giants or Duke-UNC game twice a year is a bad thing. Now imagine if you could have Ohio State-Michigan or Alabama-Auburn twice a year, instead of having one of those games being Ohio State-Rutgers or Alabama-Vanderbilt instead. Having smaller conferences would make this possible, while still allowing for two non-conference games to be played every year. And even with the smaller conferences, I found that most of the major rivalries within conferences could still be maintained.

So, without any further ado, here's what these conferences would look like. Note that the conference names are just placeholders to help distinguish the conferences from one another:

Northwest Conference
Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, BYU

Made up of five Pac-12 schools (four from the North division alone) and one independent, this conference would have the potential to be one of the strongest in this new alignment. The key rivalries here are the in-state ones: Washington-Washington State, Oregon-Oregon State, and Utah-BYU, the latter of which would be a conference game for the first time since 2010; Washington-Oregon would be the other key rivalry. This would be one of the few conferences where the states are not geographically contiguous.

Far West Conference
Stanford, Cal, UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State

This conference would be completely composed of schools from the Pac-12, four of them from the South division. The four California schools are all reunited here with their key rivalries (Stanford-Cal, Cal-UCLA, UCLA-USC, and USC-Stanford), while Arizona and Arizona State are kept together.

Pacific West Conference
Hawaii, San Jose State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Nevada, UNLV

This is literally the West division of the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State maintains its rivalries with San Diego State, San Jose State, and Hawaii, while Nevada and UNLV are also kept together. Probably one of the weaker conferences here.

Rocky Mountain Conference
Boise State, Utah State, Wyoming, Colorado State, Air Force, New Mexico

This is likewise the Mountain division of the MWC, and also a relatively weak conference. We see a fairly low concentration of major rivalries, the biggest being Utah State-Wyoming, Wyoming-Colorado State, and Colorado State-Air Force. I would have liked to put Boise State elsewhere (as I did with my previous proposal) but can't really make that work here.

Great Plains Conference
Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Arkansas

This conference is loaded with rivalries from the old Big Eight - Nebraska alone would have rivalry games against Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri, while we also have Kansas-Kansas State and Kansas-Missouri. Arkansas is a bit of an awkward fit, though at least they'd have the opportunity to continue building their rivalry with Missouri.

Central Conference
Minnesota, Iowa, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois

Five of these six schools hail from the Big Ten West, giving us a number of rivalries: Minnesota-Wisconsin, Wisconsin-Iowa, Iowa-Minnesota, and Northwestern-Illinois. Meanwhile, Iowa-Iowa State is made a conference game. Arguably one of the stronger conferences in this alignment.

Great Lakes Conference
Purdue, Indiana, Notre Dame, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State

Probably one of the two strongest conferences here (along with the Deep South). Five of the schools are from the Big Ten, and four from the East division alone. Michigan-Ohio State is one of the greatest rivalries in sports, while you also maintain the Michigan-Michigan State, Purdue-Indiana, and Indiana-Michigan State rivalries. Adding Notre Dame to the mix allows them to play existing rivals Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue, and potentially build an in-state rivalry with Indiana.

Appalachian Conference
Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt, Penn State, West Virginia, Maryland

We restore four core schools of the old Big East here. A very high concentration of rivalry games, as Syracuse, Pitt, Penn State ,and West Virginia are all rivals with each other. We also see the Boston College-Syracuse, Penn State-Maryland, and West Virginia-Maryland rivalries here.

North Atlantic Conference
UConn, UMass, Army, Rutgers, Temple, Navy

The conference that formed the basis for this whole idea, this may ironically be the weakest of all of them. This also has the fewest rivalry games, with only UConn-UMass and Army-Navy counting as such currently. However, I believe Rutgers-Temple would have obvious rivalry potential, and the geographic proximity and relatively similar strength of these programs overall makes me think this could actually work quite well.

Tidewater Conference
Virginia, Virginia Tech, UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest

Another conference with a high concentration of rivalries, mainly due to all of the Tobacco Road schools being each other's rivals. We also have the Virginia-Virginia Tech and UNC-Virginia rivalries here. I think these ACC schools would benefit greatly from being out of the shadow of the Clemson Goliath.

South Atlantic Conference
Clemson, South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Florida, Miami

This conference combines four ACC and two SEC schools, although South Carolina was actually a founding member of the ACC as well. The three Florida schools are all each other's rivals, and we also get Clemson's rivalries with Florida State, South Carolina and Georgia Tech. I would have loved to fit Georgia in here somehow, but I think this works nonetheless.

Deep South Conference
LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia

Not only is this the strongest conference here - consisting entirely of SEC blue bloods - but also the one with the highest concentration of rivalries. Literally every single one of Alabama's conference games would be considered a rivalry game. We also get LSU's rivalries with Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Auburn, as well as the Ole Miss-Mississippi State rivalry. Georgia has the fewest here, counting "just" Alabama and Auburn as rivals. This would be an extremely entertaining conference schedule to watch.

Upland Conference
Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

An interesting conference with a relatively high rivalry density, I'm sure many of these programs would be glad to have their own spotlight for once, especially the three SEC schools here. Louisville, Cincinnati, and Memphis are all rivals of each other, as are Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee. Louisville-Kentucky would be made a conference game for the first time, and Memphis would have the opportunity to build rivalries with its in-state foes as well.

Magnolia Conference
Tulsa, TCU, Baylor, Rice, SMU, Tulane

A riff off of the old "Southern Ivies" concept of the 1950s and 1960s, all of these are private schools based in the South. These schools are historically connected through their various associations in the SWC, CUSA, and the American Conference. There's already a few rivalries here, including Baylor-TCU, TCU-SMU, and SMU-Rice.

Red River Conference
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Houston

Five of these six schools have direct ties to the Big 12, while Houston played in the SWC, the Big 12's predecessor. Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech all have rivalries with each other, while Oklahoma's rivalries with Texas and Oklahoma State are also present.

Southern Coast Conference
Appalachian State, East Carolina, Central Florida, South Florida, FAU, FIU

I feel like this conference could be called "The Leftovers", as we are forced to throw together the three remianing American Conference schools with schools from CUSA and the Sun Belt in order to round out our 96-school pool. This produces one of the only non-contiguous conferences in this proposal. However, these schools are actually decently strong, with FAU and App State dominating their respective conferences over the past few years and UCF emerging as one of the best Group of Five schools in the country. There's also a couple of rivalries here, particularly UCF-USF and FAU-FIU, as well as a burgeoning rivalry between UCF and ECU. I could see in-state rivalries forming between App State and ECU as well as between the four Florida schools as a whole.


While this proposal may have originated simply as a curiosity, I genuinely feel that this plan has legitimate merit. Think of all the advantages over the current system: a higher concentration of rivalry games, stronger overall quality of games, a fairer shot for more teams to be in contention for a championship, and far more more games that are relevant late into the season. What more could you ask for?