Why we'll never see another 30 game winner

Two years ago, many people were saying that Ubaldo Jimenez had a shot at winning 30 games. Looking back on it, this claim was implausible on so many different levels. People who didn't like Ubaldo's chances cited the declining number of IP/GS as a reason why this wasn't possible. However, even that does not actually explain why. The real reason is the decline in the number of starts in a season. Taking a look through the yearly leaderboards reveals that there hasn't been a pitcher to reach 36 starts since 2003, a 37 GS pitcher since 1991, and a 40 GS since 1987. Based on that logic, we would assume that a modern league leader would get 35 starts. In order to win 30 games in 35 starts, one would require a W/S% (win/start %) of .857. According to baseballbypositions.com, the last pitcher with a W/S% that high was Lefty Grove in 1931 (incidentally the second-to-last 30-win season). To put some more perspective on this, let's take a look at the most recent 25-game winnners (since 1969) and their number of games started:


Bob Welch, 1990: 35 starts
Steve Stone, 1980: 37 starts
Ron Guidry, 1978: 35 starts
Catfish Hunter, 1974: 41 starts
Fergie Jenkins, 1974: 41 starts
Steve Carlton, 1972: 41 starts
Mickey Lolich, 1971: 45 starts
Tom Seaver, 1969: 35 starts

The fact that no one has won even 25 games since 1990, and that no one has even won 28 since Denny McLain's magical season should be enough to realize how difficult this is. But then to realize that half of the players on this list needed 40 starts, well, that's just about the final nail in the coffin. Based on all of this information, I think it is fairly safe to say two things: 1) we will probably never see another 30-game winner without a highly unlikely lengthening of the 162-game season and 2) 25 is the new 30 (and it will probably be 20 is the new 25 not too long from now) when it comes to the elite of the elite.

(As a side note, Justin Verlander's 24-win season last year featured only a .706 W/S%)

(Side note #2: the fewest number of games played by a 30 game-winner is 41. Some pitchers won 30 with fewer than 35 starts, but they also had quite a few relief appearances. In 1968, Denny McLain started 41 games.)