Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Wilbur Wood: A Hall of Fame Case

Wilbur Wood had a brilliant though relatively brief career as a pitcher during the 1960s and 1970s. Utilizing the knuckleball, Wood was able to reach starts and innings totals not seen in decades. However, his career was derailed early in 1976, when a ball off the bat of Ron LeFlore shattered his kneecap. Wood was unable to pitch the remainder of the year, and he pitched just two more ineffective seasons before being forced to retire. He was just 36 in his final season, practically youthful for a knuckleballer. Despite this sudden end to his career, Wood was still able to post some remarkable numbers. In 17 seasons, he posted a win-loss record of 164-156, with 57 saves. He made 651 appearances, 297 of them starts and the other 354 in relief. He posted a 3.24 ERA and a 114 ERA+ in 2684 innings pitched, totaling 52.1 Wins Above Replacement as a pitcher. Read on to see why Wilbur Wood should be enshrined in Cooperstown:

Wilbur Wood is one of just eight pitchers in MLB history to have 150+ wins and 50+ saves. Of the other seven, three are currently Hall of Famers (Lefty Grove, Dennis Eckersley, and Waite Hoyt), and another is a future Hall of Famer (John Smoltz). The remaining three are Jack Quinn, Charlie Hough, and Derek Lowe. Quinn has a legitimate Hall of Fame case as well, having won 247 games and posted a WAR of 58.9. Hough, like Wood, was a knuckleballer, but Hough never had nearly the peak that Wood did. Lowe has pitched as recently as this season.

During his peak five years as a starting pitcher (1971-1975), Wood won 20 games every season except 1975, when he won 16. This makes him one of 91 pitchers ever to win 20 games at least four times. Of the other 90, exactly half (45) are in the Hall of Fame. The other half is comprised of one pitcher not yet eligible for the Hall (Tom Glavine), one pitcher still on the ballot (Roger Clemens), and 36 who won 20 in 1924 or earlier. The only other pitchers not in the Hall are Wes Ferrell, Paul Derringer, Johnny Sain, Dave McNally, Mike Cuellar, Luis Tiant, and Dave Stewart.

During that same five-year stretch, Wood had no fewer than 42 games started each season. This makes him one of just 22 pitchers ever to have five or more seasons of at least 40 starts. Ten of those pitchers are in the Hall of Fame. Of the remaining 12 pitchers, Wood is the only one to have done so since 1893. Additionally, Wood had at least 320 innings every year but 1975, when he had just over 290. This makes him one of 79 pitchers with at least four seasons of 300 or more innings pitched. Of the 79, 38 pitchers are already in the Hall of Fame. Wood and Mickey Lolich are the only two not in Cooperstown to have accomplished this feat since 1911.

Wilbur Wood didn't just pitch a lot during this stretch; he also pitched exceptionally well. In 1971, Wood went 22-13 with a 1.91 ERA and 210 SO in 334 IP. In 44 games, he made 42 starts, 22 of which were complete games, and 7 of which were shutouts. He led the American League in ERA+, WAR, and Adjusted Pitching Runs. He was named to the All Star team, finished third in Cy Young voting, and was ninth in MVP voting. His 11.7 WAR that season is tied for the fifth highest mark since 1920 with Pedro Martinez's 2000, behind only Dwight Gooden's 1985, Steve Carlton's 1972, Pete Alexander's 1920, and Roger Clemens's 1997. In addition, his 1972 season (in which he went 24-17 with a 2.51 ERA in 376.2 IP) is tied for 13th since 1920, at 10.7 WAR.

These two seasons make Wood one of just 28 pitchers ever with two or more seasons of at least 10 WAR. Of the other 27, 18 are in the Hall of Fame, one is not yet eligible (Randy Johnson), one is still on the ballot (Clemens), and the other seven all pitched in the 19th century. Including his 1973 season (24-20, 3.46 ERA in 359.1 IP), Wood has three years with at least 7.5 WAR, making him one of 50 all time. Outside of Wood, only 18 of those pitchers are not in the Hall, including one who is active (Roy Halladay), four who are not yet eligible (Johnson, Martinez, Greg Maddux, and Curt Schilling), one who is still on the ballot (Clemens), and 11 who did so before 1903. The only other pitcher on the list is Nap Rucker, who pitched in the dead-ball era.

Wood had two additional seasons of 5+ WAR, 1968 and 1974. In 1974, Wood went 20-19 with a 3.60 ERA in 320.1 IP. He had 5.6 WAR. The 1968 season, however, came in relief. Wood went 13-12 with 16 saves in 88 games, 46 of which were games finished. His ERA was 1.87, with a 171 ERA+ and 5.4 WAR. He finished 25th in MVP voting. This gives him five seasons of 5+ WAR. In total, 75 pitchers have had at least five seasons of 5+ WAR. Over half (40) of them are in the Hall of Fame. Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Johan Santana are still considered active. Schilling, Clemens, Johnson, Martinez, Maddux, Mike Mussina, and Brandon Webb are not yet eligible. Seven pitched in the 19th century, and four more pitched in the dead-ball era. The only remaining pitchers are Ferrell, Tiant, Urban Shocker, Eddie Rommel, Mel Harder, Bob Friend, Rick Reuschel, Dave Stieb, Mark Langston, Bret Saberhagen, Kevin Appier, and David Cone. A good Hall of Fame case can be made for many of those pitchers.

Overall, Wilbur Wood's numbers from 1971 to 1975 are outstanding. He went 106-89 in 224 starts, including 99 complete games and 22 shutouts. He struck out 911 batters and posted an ERA of 3.08 in 1681.2 innings pitched. He led the American League twice in wins, four times in starts, twice in innings pitched, twice in batters faced, and once in ERA+. He was named to three all star teams, received Cy Young votes three times, and placed in the top ten in MVP voting twice. He posted 39.1 WAR and a 120 ERA+. Going back through history, only 36 other pitchers have ever posted more WAR over a five-year span. Of the 36, 22 are in the Hall of Fame, three are not yet eligible (Johnson, Maddux, Martinez), one is still on the ballot (Clemens), and the rest pitched before 1903. As a matter of fact, outside of Clemens, Wilbur Wood had the best five-year stretch of any eligible pitcher in the 20th century who is not in the Hall of Fame.

In addition, Wood had a remarkable run as a relief pitcher. From 1968 to 1970, Wood made 251 appearances, including 158 games finished and 52 saves. He went 32-36 and struck out 232 batters, walking just 109. His ERA was 2.50, and he had a 144 ERA+ in 400.1 innings pitched. He led the American League all three years in appearances and twice in games finished. In total he had 10.5 WAR in just three years. Only ten relievers have ever had more WAR in a three-year span. Two are them are in the Hall of Fame (Bruce Sutter and Goose Gossage). Three are not yet eligible (Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Keith Foulke). The others on the list are Ellis Kinder, Marv Grissom, Dick Radatz, John Hiller, and Dan Quisenberry.

If we divide Wood's career into two parts, we can label him a reliever from 1961 to 1970, and as a starter from 1971 to 1977. As a reliever, thus, Wood had 11.4 WAR in 655.2 IP, and he had 40.8 WAR in 2028.1 IP as a starter. Only 19 relievers with less than 700 career innings pitched had more WAR than Wood. Only four starters with less than 2100 career innings pitched had more WAR (Santana, Noodles Hahn, Dizzy Dean, and Harry Brecheen). Overall, among pitchers with fewer than 2700 career innings pitched, Wood ranks sixth, behind only Saberhagen, Rivera, Appier, Shocker, and Sandy Koufax.

Per 1000 innings pitched, Wood had 19.5 WAR. Among the top 100 pitchers in WAR, he ranks 35th in WAR/1000 IP. Of the 34 pitchers who rank higher, 15 are in the Hall of Fame, and another 10 are either still active or not yet eligible. Of the nine remaining who rank higher, the top two are still on the ballot (Clemens and Schilling). The only other pitchers are Saberhagen, Cone, Appier, Shocker, Rommel, Stieb, and Kevin Brown.

Lastly, Wilbur Wood is, of course, one of the greatest knuckleball pitchers of all time. Among the seventy pitchers listed as knuckleballers in The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, only Phil Niekro and Eddie Cicotte have a higher WAR (excluding Ted Lyons, who only used the pitch later in his career). As a matter of fact, Wood even has more WAR than Hall of Famer Hoyt Wilhelm. This does, however, come with the caveat that Wilhelm pitched almost entirely in relief. Still, given that both Wilhelm and Niekro are in the Hall and Cicotte is banned for life, it seems fairly obvious that Wood is the best knuckleballer not in the Hall of Fame. In my humble opinion, he should be in.




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