The 2002 American League Cy Young Award proved to be one of the most controversial votes in recent memory, as Oakland A's starting pitcher Barry Zito (23-5, 2.75 ERA) beat out Pedro Martinez (20-4, 2.26 ERA). However, the player who should have won the award may not be Pedro, but rather his teammate Derek Lowe. Head below the fold to find out why.
Derek Lowe's ERA in 2002 was about one-third of a run higher than Martinez's (2.58 vs. 2.26). However, Lowe only gave up 2 unearned runs the entire season, compared to 12 for Pedro. As a result, Lowe's RA/9 is only 2.66, while Martinez's is 2.80. Since both pitched for the same team - and since Lowe pitched about 20 additional innings - Lowe manages to put up a higher RA/9 WAR than Pedro (7.2 vs. 6.5 according to baseball-reference; 8.7 vs. 7.5 according to fangraphs).
However, fangraphs gives Pedro a much higher FIP WAR than Lowe, 7.4 vs. 4.8. This startling difference between RA/9 WAR and FIP WAR totals reflects just how different the styles employed by the two pitchers were. Lowe pitched to contact, generating nearly three times as many groundballs and ground outs as Martinez (1.80 vs. 0.68 GB/FB; 2.98 vs. 0.98 GO/AO). This took advantage of the tremendous infield defense the 2002 Red Sox had, which totaled 44 Total Zone Runs between 1B, 2B, SS and 3B. Lowe helped himself defensively as well, going 49 chances on the season without an error. Partly as a result, Lowe's BABIP is a remarkable .237, while Pedro's is .274. Lowe also kept the ball in the park more effectively, with a 1.4% HR rate vs. 1.7% for Martinez.
Pedro, on the other hand, had another great strikeout season, leading the American League with 239. His strikeout rate was more than twice that of Lowe, 10.8 vs. 5.2. Martinez also allowed fewer hits and walks than Lowe, beating him in WHIP 0.923 to 0.974. This combination of power and control produced a SO/BB ratio of 5.98, compared to Lowe's 2.65. This explains the huge edge in FIP WAR, which values walk and strikeout numbers over actual runs scored. Overall, there is no question that Pedro had a more dominating season than Lowe.
However, it must be noted that the Cy Young is awarded to the "most valuable pitcher", not the most dominating. It has already been pointed out that Lowe allowed fewer runs per nine innings than Martinez, and did so over more innings pitched. In addition, Pedro's high strikeout totals made him a less efficient pitcher. Lowe was able to average 6.9 IP/GS on just 96 pitches, while Martinez went only 6.6 IP/GS despite averaging 103 pitches.
Most of the advanced statistics favor Lowe over Pedro. Besides the advantage in the RA/9 WAR figures, Lowe led the AL in Adj. Pitching Runs, Adj. Pitching Wins, Base-Out Runs Saved, Base-Out Wins Saved, and Sit. Wins Saved. In fact, other than FIP WAR, the only major advanced statistic giving the edge to Martinez is Win Probability Added, and a very slim one at that (4.1 vs. 4.0).
In general, despite the dominating win-loss, ERA and strikeout totals for Pedro Martinez, the numbers indicate that Derek Lowe was the most valuable pitcher in the American League in 2002. As such, he should have been awarded the Cy Young Award for that season.
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