The Impending Offensive Crisis

Recent trends and past history regarding offensive numbers indicate that runs per game will likely fall below 4.00 within the next five years, perhaps to levels not seen since 1972 or even 1968. Remarkable declines in hits, walks, and runs per game have created a dire situation for offenses in baseball. In addition, strikeouts continue to rise beyond record levels, and have done so for the first time in history without an accompanying rise in home runs. Singles and triples per game are at record lows, as lineups are dangerously relying on the long-ball. Non-home run base hits are at their lowest level since 1972, along with batting average and hits per game. Ratios of strikeouts to hits, walks, and runs are at all-time highs. Finally, the use of small-ball to create runs has been curtailed as well, allowing for fewer ways to score runs. Sacrifice hits per game are at an all-time low, and stolen base attempts per game are at a 42-year low. As a result of these factors, any significant one-year drop in home runs will prove disastrous for offenses.

(Click through to see the data.)

Trends:

SO/G: +20.0% since 2005 (6.30 --> 7.54)
H/G: -7.4% since 2006 (9.28 --> 8.59)
BB/G: -10.2% since 2009 (3.42 --> 3.07)
R/G: -12.1% since 2006 (4.86 --> 4.27)
HR/G: -8.1% since 2006 (1.11 --> 1.02)
(H-HR)/G: -8.0% since 2007 (8.23 --> 7.57)

R/G (4.27): Lowest since 1992 (4.12)
H/G (8.59): Lowest since 1972 (8.19)
RBI/G (4.07): Lowest since 1992 (3.87)
BB/G* (3.03): Lowest since 1968 (2.82) *2012 figure
BA (.253): Lowest since 1972 (.244)
OBP (.319): Lowest since 1988 (.318)
(H-HR)/G (7.57): Lowest since 1972 (7.51)
SBA/G (0.74): Lowest since 1971 (0.73)
SO/G (7.56): At all-time high
SO/H (0.88): At all-time high
SO/R (1.77): At all-time high
SO/BB* (2.475): At all-time high
1B/G (5.70): At all-time low
3B/G (0.15): At all-time low
SH/G (0.29): At all-time low
IBB/G (0.20): At all-time low