Sand-tana?

Johan Santana's recent career-threatening shoulder surgery brings up a very valid question: if indeed his career is over, how will he be remembered? At his best he was the most dominating pitcher in the game, winning two of three Cy Youngs while being robbed of a third. In more recent years, he has been one of the biggest question marks in baseball, averaging just 161 innings between '09, '10, and '12, and missing all of '11 and '13. This paradox brings to mind the abrupt ending to another lefty's career, Sandy Koufax.


Unlike Johan, Koufax retired at the top of his game and on his own terms. Other than that, however, there are more similarities than differences. Both spent their first several seasons shuffling between the rotation and the bullpen. Both reached their primes at age 25, with 6-7 year peaks. Both were finished by their early 30s.

Looking at their career per/162 game averages, one cannot help but notice how similar they are:

Koufax

W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO
16	8	.655	2.76	38	30	4	13	4	1	222	168	77	68	20	78	5	229

Santana

W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO
15	8	.641	3.20	38	30	2	2	1	0	214	182	82	76	23	60	1	210

Looking at advanced metrics reveals even more similarities:

Koufax: 53.1 WAR / 30.7 WAA / 131 ERA+
Santana: 50.7 WAR / 32.3 WAA / 136 ERA+

Now this is not to say that Santana is as good of a pitcher as Koufax; and saying that he's better would just be plain blasphemy. Koufax, of course, had 3 Cy Youngs, an MVP, 3 World Series rings, 4 no-hitters (including a perfect game), and at one point had the single-season strikeout record. However, it at the very least should be pointed out that Santana should get serious Hall of Fame consideration when he becomes eligible.