Showing posts with label Conference Realignment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Conference Realignment. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 7, 2021

Radical College Football Realignment - A Different Approach

So I've clearly had an obsession with college football realignment scenarios over the years; I've created more proposals than I can count at this point. Today I bring forward a new scenario, one that's based on a new gimmick - universal 13-game regular season schedules.

Before I dive in, let me review my key priorities when creating these scenarios:
  • Conferences that are based on historic rivalries and conference affiliations, geography, and program strength.
  • Single round-robin conference scheduling, forgoing the need for unbalanced schedules and divisions, protected rivalries, or conference championship games.
  • A postseason system that respects the historic role of bowl games while still producing a clear national champion.
The second point seems to create a natural limit to conference size: if schools need to play a single-round robin schedule, then conferences need to realistically be no bigger than 10 schools to allow a 9-game conference schedule in a 12-game season. However, a thought occurs to me: if we've gotten rid of conference championship games, there's no reason we couldn't lift the cap of regular season games to 13. After all, there is plenty of precedent for this (take a look at Hawaii for instance). Hell, the 2002 national champions, Ohio State, played a 13-game regular season (starting with a kickoff classic). A 13-game schedule allows for one extra conference game, thus enabling conferences to expand to 11 schools. This opens up a whole new realm of realignment scenarios.

And one such scenario is exactly what I'm putting forward here. The framework is simple: 12 conferences of 10 or 11 schools, playing 9- or 10-game single round-robin conference schedules within a 13-game regular season schedule. The 12 conferences are divided into two tiers of six each: automatic qualifiers (the "power" conferences) and non-automatic qualifiers (non-"power" conferences). Yes, I'm bringing back the BCS, albeit a modified version. The wrinkle here is that while there will still be five BCS bowls, they will now be followed by a plus-one #1 vs #2 national championship game, based on post-bowl rankings.

So, without further ado, here is the new conference alignment:

Automatic Qualifying Conferences

Big Ten
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa

Pac-10
Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State

"If it ain't broke, don't fix it" - that's essentially the approach I took with these two conferences. These are what I consider the "classic" alignments for these conferences. While I could have added another school to either conference, there were no other schools that ended up making sense here in the grand scheme of things; as we'll see below, Penn State notably is integral to another conference. Biggest benefits of these alignments: 1) the Big Ten actually has 10 schools again; 2) the imbalance between the Big Ten East and Big Ten West is eliminated; 3) the California schools are not split between divisions.

SEC
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, LSU

Moving to an 11-team alignment resolves a long-standing problem for me: where to put South Carolina. South Carolina really does work well in the SEC in my eyes, and their inclusion here does not disrupt the power structure of the conference in a meaningful way. Otherwise this is essentially the "classic" SEC alignment of the '70s and '80s. No rivalries are split by divisions, which is a big plus for a conference chock-full of them.

ACC
Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami (FL)

The ACC tends to be a challenging conference in these scenarios, and greatly benefits from the 11-team alignment. This is actually the roster the ACC had for exactly one season - 2004 - following the addition of Miami and Virginia Tech but prior to Boston College joining. The ACC is by far the conference most improved by the removal of divisions, with its ridiculous Atlantic/Coastal split. This particular alignment is great because it keeps the Virginia-Virginia Tech and Miami-Florida State rivalries together. Also of note: the return of Maryland.

Big 11
Nebraska, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

This to me is where things really start to get interesting. Nebraska, Missouri, and Texas A&M are all restored to their rightful home, rekindling traditional conference rivalries with Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas respectively. Arkansas feels like a natural fit, rejoining three former SWC rivals; their presence here also allows the SEC to stay at 11 without them. Meanwhile, capping this conference at 11 fixes one of the biggest problems with the old Big 12: the imbalance between the North and South divisions.

Big East
Boston College, Connecticut, Syracuse, Rutgers, Temple*, Penn State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Army*, Navy*, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown

What college football realignment scenario is complete without bringing back the Big East? I really like this version. Six of the eight founding football members are here, excluding Miami and Virginia Tech, who I feel do fit better in the ACC. Notre Dame and Penn State take their place as the anchors of the conference, and frankly both are stronger historically, have better rivalries, and are closer geographically (while Notre Dame is obviously in the Midwest, it is culturally a Northeastern school). I like having the trio of UConn, Rutgers and Temple together; even though they are the weakest AQ schools in this alignment, their location in the major New York and Philadelphia media markets provides a lot of value. Army and Navy round out the conference nicely, bringing plenty of tradition in the form of their own rivalry game and their respective rivalries with Notre Dame. Of note: the Backyard Brawl is back as a conference game.

While Notre Dame obviously loses its independent status by joining the Big East, this is probably the best conference scenario you can come up with for them. Four of its biggest rivals would be conference games here: Pitt, Boston College, Army and Navy, while the rest of the games would strengthen the school's Northeast ties. The Irish can also still play three non-conference games in this scenario, potentially against USC, Stanford, and a Big Ten opponent to preserve its other biggest rivalries; Notre Dame can afford to play a strong non-conference schedule, with the weaker conference games against UConn, Rutgers and Temple. (Penn State, for its part, gets Pitt, Syracuse and West Virginia as major conference rivals now.)

The Big East does retain its basketball pedigree in this scenario; Temple, Army and Navy are here for football only, while Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova and Georgetown are still non-football members. The 13 basketball schools are well-positioned to play an 18-game conference schedule by playing 6 home-and-home matchups and 6 single matchups a year.

Non-Automatic Qualifying Conferences

WAC
BYU, Utah, Wyoming, Air Force, Colorado, Colorado State, New Mexico, UTEP, Baylor, TCU, SMU

Nine of these schools played together simultaneously in the WAC from 1996-99; however, this is a much tighter geography than that version, whose collapse led to the birth of the MWC. The two new schools here, Colorado and Baylor, are both left out of the Big 12 to allow for the Big 11 alignment described above. Colorado actually has geographic rivalries with Colorado State and Utah here, which it lacked in the Big 12, while Baylor stays together with SWC rivals TCU and SMU. Also of note: the Holy War restored as a conference game.

Now, this would be a somewhat controversial alignment, as four schools here currently play in Power Five conferences but would lose that status; Colorado and Baylor might be particularly unhappy, as longstanding major conference programs. On the flip side, this is one hell of a non-power conference. Colorado, BYU, and SMU have all won national championships; Utah and TCU both won BCS bowls; Utah and Baylor both won Power 5 conference championships this season. This conference would almost certainly be "BCS-busting" on a regular basis.

Metro
Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Houston, North Texas, Tulsa, Tulane, Southern Mississippi, UAB, Central Florida, South Florida, Wichita State, VCU

Seven of the eleven football schools currently play in the AAC (along with Wichita State for basketball), though this conference has a much more coherent geography. Louisville was a founding AAC member before leaving for the ACC, while North Texas and UAB are future members. Seven of these programs played in the Missouri Valley Conference when it sponsored football (including Wichita State), while eight played in the non-football Metro (including VCU). All eleven football schools have played in CUSA at some point. The Metro name seems appropriate here, as all but Southern Miss play in major urban areas.

This is another likely "BCS-buster" conference: Cincinnati is in the CFP this year; Memphis, Houston, and UCF have also all played in New Year's Six bowls; Louisville won two BCS bowls.

Basketball-wise, the 13-team conference would use the same scheduling format described above for the Big East.

Big West
Hawaii, San Diego State, Fresno State, San Jose State, UNLV, Nevada, Boise State, Idaho, Utah State, New Mexico State

All of these programs played football in the Big West at one point or another, except Hawaii, who is actually a current non-football member. The Big West joins the Big Ten and Pac-10 as the only 10-team conferences in this alignment. Idaho is restored as an FBS school, giving Boise State an in-state rivalry. Of note: the entire West division of the MWC is represented here. Boise State is clearly the strongest program here, and the most likely BCS-buster.

Sun Belt
UTSA, Texas State, Rice, Arkansas State, Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Troy, South Alabama

Atlantic South
Marshall, Liberty, Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Charlotte, East Carolina, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Florida Atlantic, Florida International

The rest of the current Sun Belt and CUSA schools are divided up geographically between these two conferences, along with Liberty and ECU (joining old rivals App State and Marshall). Several ascendant programs can be found here, including UTSA, Louisiana, App State, and Coastal.

MAC
Akron, Kent State, Ohio, Miami (OH), Bowling Green State, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Ball State, Northern Illinois

The weakest conference, this is essentially the current MAC minus Buffalo, excluded to get the MAC down to 11 schools.

Independents
Buffalo, Massachusetts

These are the only two FBS schools left without a conference home. Both schools would likely  struggle to fill a full 13-game schedule. I anticipate a lot of matchups against MAC, Big East, and FCS schools.

Bowl Games

The bowl games effectively fall into five categories. The first are the BCS bowls. The champions of the six AQ conferences get bids to designated games, while the next four highest ranked schools get at-large bids. As noted above, the rankings are rerun after the bowl games, and the #1 and #2 teams would then play each other in a national championship game played in Los Angeles. Compared to the current playoff system, this makes more bowls and schools relevant for the championship, likely three or four games in a given year. Non-AQ schools who make a BCS bowl would also get a legit shot at getting to the top two and playing for a title if they can beat an AQ champion.

Rose Bowl (Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA): Pac-10 vs Big Ten
Fiesta Bowl (Cardinals Stadium - Glendale, AZ): Big East vs At-Large
Cotton Bowl Classic (Cowboys Stadium - Arlington, TX): Big 11 vs At-Large
Sugar Bowl (Louisiana Superdome - New Orleans, LA): SEC vs At-Large
Orange Bowl (Dolphin Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL): ACC vs At-Large
National Championship Game (Los Angeles Stadium - Inglewood, CA) - #1 vs #2

For the rest of the bowls, order of preference is based on descending order through the rankings to produce the strongest matchups. Every AQ conference is guaranteed at least two bowl berths against other AQ schools, as follows:

Citrus Bowl (Citrus Bowl - Orlando, FL) - SEC vs Big Ten
Hall of Fame Bowl (Tampa Community Stadium - Tampa, FL) - SEC vs Big Ten
Peach Bowl (New Atlanta Stadium - Atlanta, GA) - SEC vs ACC
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville Municipal Stadium - Jacksonville, FL) - Big East vs ACC
Tangerine Bowl (Citrus Bowl - Orlando, FL) - Big East vs AQ At-Large
Alamo Bowl (Alamodome - San Antonio, TX) - Big 11 vs Pac-10
Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas Stadium - Paradise, NV) - Pac-10 vs Big 11

Each non-AQ conference is also guaranteed at least one berth against an AQ school, with designated matchups as follows:

Holiday Bowl (Aztec Stadium* - San Diego, CA) - Big West vs Pac-10
Sun Bowl (Sun Bowl - El Paso, TX) - WAC vs Big 11
Music City Bowl (The Coliseum - Nashville, TN) - Sun Belt vs SEC
Bluebonnet Bowl (Texans Stadium - Houston, TX) - Metro vs Big East
Motor City Bowl (Lions Stadium - Detroit, MI) - MAC vs Big Ten
Queen City Bowl (Panthers Stadium - Charlotte, NC) - ASC vs ACC

Non-AQ schools also have designated bowl berths against other non-AQ schools. Note that the Aloha Bowl gives preference to Hawaii as its Big West representative:

Heart of Dallas Bowl (Cotton Bowl - Dallas, TX) - Metro vs WAC
Liberty Bowl (Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN) - Metro vs Sun Belt/ASC/MAC/Ind.
Copper Bowl (Arizona Stadium - Tucson, AZ) - Big West vs WAC
Aloha Bowl (Aloha Stadium* - Honolulu, HI) - Big West vs MAC
Independence Bowl (Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA) - Sun Belt vs ASC

Lastly, both the WAC and Metro get bowl berths against at-large opponents, AQ or non-AQ:

All-American Bowl (New Birmingham Stadium - Birmingham, AL) - Metro vs At-Large
New Mexico Bowl (University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM) - WAC vs At-Large

The bowl games are mostly based on the most prestigious and longest-running games and sites, and are mainly based at NFL and non-campus stadiums across the Sun Belt (south of the 36th parallel). Bowl sites in northern cities, non-football facilities, and on-campus stadiums, as well as duplicate bowls in the same city, are mostly eliminated, with a few notable exceptions.

Overall, the number of bowl games is significantly cut down, with only 25 bowls and 50 bids. Eligibility is tightened by requiring seven wins against FBS schools. If a conference cannot fulfill its designated tie-ins, those bids can be replaced by at-large schools. Reaching a bowl game would be a more significant accomplishment than it is today; only about a third of schools would make a bowl game, compared to two-thirds now. Again, the goal here is to make the postseason feel a bit more meaningful and return to its original role as a showcase of the nation's best programs.

Notes: Bowls and stadiums are referred to by their non-sponsored names. Aztec Stadium and Aloha Stadium are currently under construction.


Wednesday, July 7, 2021

A Different College Football Alternate History: The Magnolia Conference

It's summer, which means it's time for me to put forward yet another college football realignment proposal. This time we'll be exploring a scenario in which a Magnolia Conference came together in the 1960s. The overall framework is straightforward: every conference has between 8-11 schools and currently plays a round-robin conference schedule (with one exception). There are no conference championship games. Each conference has a designated tie-in to a bowl game for its champion. After the bowl games, the top two teams (as determined by adding the points in the AP and Coaches polls) play each other in a national championship game.

Here's a breakdown of each conference, including a rationale for their composition, an analysis of the conference, and an explanation of their bowl tie-in. (Note: an * means the school joins for football-only, while italics indicate basketball-only)

Magnolia Conference

Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Rice, SMU, Tulane, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest

The original proposal for the Magnolia Conference consisted of the seven schools listed above that were in the SWC, SEC or ACC at the time. These schools were all more academically-inclined than some of their conference rivals, and felt that they were beginning to fall behind from a competitive standpoint. All but Georgia Tech was a private school. Although both Tulane and Georgia Tech did leave the SEC in the 1960s, this conference never came together. Had it done so, I suspect that Miami would have become the 8th member. It was an independent that would not otherwise have a natural home in this scenario. Like most of the other schools here, it's a private Southern school with a strong academic profile that's located in a major city. Miami had not yet become "The U", so joining a conference with this alignment would not have been viewed as a step-down in profile the way it would be today. 

From a competitive standpoint, Miami and Georgia Tech likely would have emerged as the two dominant programs in the conference. However, I suspect the other schools would have done reasonably well now that they are no longer in the shadows of the blue-bloods in their former conference. Stronger academic standards would also help keep the conference competitive. It's also quite likely that SMU doesn't pursue its slush fund scheme in this conference as opposed to in the SWC, preventing them from being subjected to the Death Penalty come the 1980s.

The Magnolia Conference champion would have gone to the Peach Bowl, given Georgia Tech being the Atlanta school. The Peach Bowl was first held in 1968, just a few years after the Magnolia Conference was proposed, so this timeline fits well.

Three conferences are directly affected by the creation of the Magnolia Conference:

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

Clemson, Maryland, NC State, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

Losing both Duke and Wake Forest would have left the ACC with just six schools. There are two logical additions to bring the conference back to eight: West Virginia and Virginia Tech. Both were still members of the Southern Conference into the 1960s, the same conference the ACC was borne out of. West Virginia was an original finalist for being the eighth school, beaten out by Virginia. Virginia Tech joined the ACC decades later. Having just two North Carolina schools makes this a much more geographically balanced conference, which likely means that South Carolina doesn't leave the conference in the 1970s as they did in OTL.

On the field, this conference would not be as competitive in football as it is IRL. Although Duke and Wake Forest have not been major factors, the inability to add Georgia Tech - and by extension Florida State - leaves the conference without two of its major powers. It also means that the conference is in no position to expand further as they did in the 2000s and 2010s. Clemson and Virginia Tech would likely be left as the two marquee programs.

The ACC champion would be guaranteed a berth to the Citrus Bowl, which was the conference's tie-in from 1987-1991

Southeastern Conference (SEC)

Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee

The SEC loses one additional school than it did IRL in the 1960s in the form of Vanderbilt. This opens the door for Florida State to replace them as the tenth school; FSU annually pursued admission during this time.

It seems unlikely that Florida State would have emerged as quite as big of a powerhouse as they actually did playing in this stacked conference. Also, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Mississippi State are hurt by the departure of Vanderbilt and lack of future expansion, with those three schools likely revolving at the bottom of the conference most years.

The SEC retains its traditional tie-in to the Sugar Bowl.

Southwest Conference (SWC)

Arkansas, Baylor, Houston, North Texas, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Tulsa

Ironically, it's likely that losing SMU and Rice would have greatly benefitted the SWC in the long run. At the time the conference would have been left with six schools. Houston would have joined as the seventh school just as they actually did, perhaps on a more accelerated timeline to replace Rice as the Houston school in the conference. The departure of SMU may well have opened the door to North Texas gaining entrance in the 1970s, which they sought aggressively IRL but were apparently blocked by SMU from doing so. An eight-team conference with just two private schools may have been more amenable to adding another private school - which in this scenario wouldn't have upset the public-private balance - in the form of Tulsa come the late 1980s after MVC football collapses. Tulsa allows the conference to reenter Oklahoma while also providing Arkansas with a closer conference road game. This, combined with the absence of the SMU scandal, may have been enough to keep Arkansas in the conference and prevent the collapse of the SWC in the 1990s.

From a competitive standpoint, the power structure of the conference is not dramatically changed. The three major programs - Arkansas, Texas and Texas A&M - are still here. Arkansas probably fares better staying here than they did after joining the SEC. Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU would have been a solid mid-tier, while Houston, North Texas and Tulsa likely bring up the rear most years.

The SWC retains its traditional tie-in to the Cotton Bowl.

One other major conference would have been indirectly affected by the presence of the Magnolia Conference:

Big East Conference

Army*, Boston College, Georgetown, Navy*, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Rutgers, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Syracuse, Temple*, UConn, Villanova

I've made a couple of presumptions about the trajectory of the Big East here. One is that Penn State is added in the 1980s, then joins for football once the conference starts sponsoring in the 1990s. Another is that the absence of Miami, Virginia Tech and West Virginia opens the door for the trio of Army, Navy (both for football-only) and Notre Dame instead, probably the only scenario in which those three schools join a conference together. Notre Dame finds itself in a conference with four major rivals (Army, Navy, Boston College and Pittsburgh) plus a number of other games on the East Coast and the ability to still schedule against USC, Stanford and/or a Big Ten team in non-conference play. This alignment is more cohesive and stable than the one in OTL, and combined with the lower stature of the ACC is more than enough to ensure the survival of the Big East to the present day.

Penn State and Notre Dame would be the clear favorites to win this conference most years. Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Boston College form a solid second tier. Army and Navy bring tradition, although how successful they'd be on the field is a question mark. Temple, Rutgers and UConn bring up the rear.

The Fiesta Bowl is the Big East tie-in here. The Fiesta Bowl invited a number of Eastern schools to play in the game from the late 1970s through the early 1990s, including Penn State, Pitt, Notre Dame and Syracuse.

Three conferences would not be directly affected by the Magnolia Conference at the time, although their trajectories would be affected by this alignment as a whole:

Big Eight Conference

Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Big Ten Conference

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Pacific-10 Conference

Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State

The continued presence of the SWC keeps the Big Eight from morphing into the Big 12. The Big Ten does not add Penn State in the 1990s, nor does it expand to 14 teams in the 2010s. The Pac-10 still gains Arizona and Arizona State in the 1970s, but expands no further.

The traditional power structures of each of these conferences remains intact. It would be particularly interesting to see what Nebraska's standing would be today had the Big Eight stayed together.

These conferences retain their traditional affiliation with the Orange Bowl (Big Eight) and Rose Bowl (Big Ten and Pac-10).

The rest of this alignment falls into place as follows:

Western Athletic Conference (WAC)

Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Utah, Utah State, UTEP, Wyoming

Big West Conference

Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV

I've added another POD here, with a tighter geographic focus for each of these conferences. Utah State and New Mexico State join the WAC, and San Diego State stays in the Big West while Hawaii joins. Meanwhile, the SWC not collapsing prevents the WAC from overexpanding in the 1990s and keeps the conference alive though today. The Big West staying alive keeps Idaho from dropping down to FCS. 

Both conferences would have strong programs at the top, namely BYU and Utah in the WAC and Boise State in the Big West. 

The WAC would send its conference champion to the Sun Bowl, one of the oldest bowl games. The Big West, with San Diego State still here, would be able to play in the Holiday Bowl against the MAC.

Metro Conference

Charlotte, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Southern Miss, UAB, UCF, USF, VCU

The absence of schools like Georgia Tech, Florida State, Virginia Tech and South Carolina likely leads to a very different history for the Metro Conference. I expect that the conference stays together and eventually starts sponsoring football as the de facto replacement for Conference USA. Unlike CUSA, though, the Metro has a tighter geographic footprint and a more cohesive conference overall. Not being raided by the Big East (twice) helps immensely.

The four oldest programs here (Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis and Southern Miss) all have respectable football histories and would certainly be competitive in this alignment. UCF and USF should also be able to have success. Charlotte and UAB are by far the weakest programs, and are here mostly for basketball (although both fit the conference's profile well as public schools in large Southern cities).

The Metro champion goes to the Liberty Bowl, just as the CUSA champ did for many years.

Mid-American Conference (MAC)

Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami (OH), Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan 

The MAC is little changed from its actual iteration, only dropping Buffalo so as to keep the conference contiguous and not require divisions and a conference title game. Still, with eleven schools this is the one conference unable to play a round-robin schedule. Each school instead has two protected rivals and rotates playing six of the other eight schools per year.

The MAC is clearly one of the weakest conferences here. None of these schools really qualify as consistent major powers.

The MAC would send its champion to the Holiday Bowl against the Big West, effectively creating a knock-off version of the Rose Bowl.

Atlantic South Conference (ASC)

Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Liberty, Marshall, Old Dominion

Sun Belt Conference (SBC)

Arkansas State, Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, UTSA, Western Kentucky

I'm not quite sure what the timeline is that leads to these two conference alignments, but frankly I don't care. The division here is purely based on geography. I do like the idea of reuniting former Southern Conference schools App State, East Carolina and Marshall in the same conference, along with a number of former Southland Conference schools in the other.

App State, Coastal Carolina and Liberty have all had success recently, as has Louisiana for the other conference. Still, these conferences are not particularly strong overall.

These conferences would have their champions play each other in the Independence Bowl. It seems especially fitting for the Sun Belt to play here, given that it was originally started to give the Southland Conference (here a de facto successor) a bowl berth.

Independents

Buffalo, UMass

These two Northeastern schools are the only two left out of this conference alignment, primarily because of not wanting to expand the MAC past 11 schools.




Monday, November 30, 2020

Scheduling for the Alternate History Scenario

Here's a look at what current scheduling would look like for the alternate history scenario previously laid out:

Regular Season

Five conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10, and SEC) have ten schools and are able to play a nine-game single-round robin conference schedule. All five conferences play three non-conference games.

The American South Conference, with only nine schools, plays an eight-game single-round robin conference schedule. Each school plays four non-conference games.

The Big 12 and Sun Belt conferences each have two six-team divisions. Schools play the other five schools within their division each year; the six schools from the other division rotate to fill the four remaining conference games. Both conferences play three non-conference games.

The MAC, SWC and WAC each have two seven-team divisions. Each team plays the other six schools in its division each year; the seven teams from the other division are rotated to fill the three remaining conference games. All three conferences play three non-conference games.

Prominent Non-Conference Games

The following non-conference games are played annually prior to rivalry week: Florida - Miami (FL), Florida State - Miami (FL), Iowa - Iowa State, Notre Dame - Navy, Army - Air Force, Navy - Air Force, Brigham Young - Utah State, Utah - Utah State, New Mexico - New Mexico State, New Mexico State - Texas-El Paso

Rivalry Week

The weekend following Thanksgiving serves as rivalry week, the final week of the regular season. The current schedule is as follows for each conference:

Big East: Boston College - Syracuse, Connecticut - Rutgers, Pittsburgh - Penn State, Notre Dame - Miami*

ACC: North Carolina - Duke, North Carolina State - Wake Forest, Clemson - South Carolina

SEC: Alabama - Auburn, Mississippi - Mississippi State, Tennessee - Vanderbilt

Big 12: Texas - Texas A&M, Oklahoma - Oklahoma State, Colorado - Nebraska, Kansas - Kansas State, Missouri - Iowa State, Arkansas - Texas Tech

Big Ten: Michigan - Ohio State, Minnesota - Wisconsin, Purdue - Indiana, Illinois - Northwestern, Michigan State - Iowa

Pac-10: Washington - Washington State, Oregon - Oregon State, California - Stanford, California-Los Angeles - Southern California*, Arizona - Arizona State

SWC: Baylor - Texas Christian, Central Florida - South Florida, Southern Methodist - Rice, Houston - Tulsa, Cincinnati - Memphis, 

WAC: Brigham Young - Utah, New Mexico - Texas-El Paso, Nevada - Nevada-Las Vegas, Air Force - Colorado State, Fresno State - San Jose State, Boise State - San Diego State

Sun Belt: Florida Atlantic - Florida International, East Carolina - Marshall, Charlotte - Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee - Western Kentucky, Arkansas State - North Texas

ASC: Appalachian State - Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern - Georgia State, Texas-San Antonio - Texas State

MAC: Ball State - Northern Illinois, Central Michigan - Eastern Michigan - Western Michigan***, Miami (OH) - Ohio, Akron - Kent State, Bowling Green - Toledo, Temple - Massachusetts

Independents: Army - Navy

Non-Conference: Maryland - West Virginia, Virginia - Virginia Tech, Georgia - Georgia Tech, Florida - Florida State, Kentucky - Louisville, Louisiana State - Tulane, Notre Dame - Southern California**, Wyoming - Utah State, Hawaii - New Mexico State, Alabama-Birmingham - Troy, Southern Mississippi - Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Monroe - Louisiana-Lafayette, South Alabama - Liberty

*Odd-numbered years only; played before rivalry week in even-numbered years
**Even-numbered years only; played before rivalry week in odd-numbered years
***Two of these three teams play each other on a rotating basis; the third plays Buffalo in a cross-divisional game.

Conference Championships

The weekend after rivalry week serves as conference championship weekend, with the following games being held:

Big 12 Championship (Arlington, TX): Big 12 North #1 vs Big 12 South #1

WAC Championship (Las Vegas, NV): WAC East #1 vs WAC West #1

SWC Championship (New Orleans, LA): SWC East #1 vs SWC West #1

MAC Championship (Detroit, MI): MAC East #1 vs MAC West #1

Sun Belt Championship (Nashville, TN): Sun Belt East #1 vs Sun Belt West #1

December Bowl Games

The following non-major bowls are held between Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve, excluding Christmas Day and Sundays:

Hall of Fame Bowl (Tampa, FL): SEC #2 vs Big Ten #2

Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, TX): Pac-10 #2 vs Big 12 #2

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, FL): ACC #2 vs Big East #2

Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas, NV): WAC #2 vs SWC #2

Bluebonnet Bowl (Houston, TX): SWC #3 vs Big 12 #3

Peach Bowl (Atlanta, GA): SEC #3 vs ACC #3

Sun Bowl (El Paso, TX): WAC #3 vs Pac-10 #3

Music City Bowl (Nashville, TN): Big Ten #3 vs Big East #3

Liberty Bowl (Memphis, TN): SWC #4 vs SEC #4

Aloha Bowl (Honolulu, HI): WAC #4 vs Big Ten #4

Tangerine Bowl (Orlando, FL): ACC #4 vs Big East #4

Copper Bowl (Tucson, AZ): Pac-10 #4 vs Big 12 #4

Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA): Sun Belt #1 vs At-Large

All-American Bowl (Birmingham, AL): American South #1 vs At-Large

Motor City Bowl (Detroit, MI): MAC #1 vs At-Large

Note: Schools must have seven wins in order to be bowl-eligible. If a conference does not have enough bowl-eligible schools to fulfill its bid to a bowl game, that bid can be given to a bowl-eligible school from another conference.

Bowl Coalition Games

The following major bowl games are held on New Year's Day. If New Year's Day falls on a Sunday, then they are held on January 2nd:

Rose Bowl: Pac-10 #1 vs Big Ten #1

Holiday Bowl: WAC #1 vs At-Large

Fiesta Bowl: Big East #1 vs At-Large

Cotton Bowl: SWC #1 vs At-Large

Sugar Bowl: SEC #1 vs At-Large

Citrus Bowl: ACC #1 vs At-Large

Orange Bowl: Big 12 #1 vs At-Large

The six at-large bids are awarded to the six next highest ranked teams in the Bowl Poll, a simple adding of the points for each team in the AP and Coaches polls.

National Championship Game

After the bowl games, the Bowl Poll is recalculated based on the final AP and Coaches poll rankings. The top two teams then advance to the national championship game, to be held the first Saturday one full week after New Year's Day.



Monday, November 23, 2020

A College Football Alignment Alternate History Scenario

FBS Conference Alignment c. 2013 (click to enlarge)

Here's a timeline I've developed for an alternate history of college football realignment. This scenario begins with the conference alignment as it actually was in 1990, and proceeds as follows:

1991 - The Big East Conference begins sponsoring football, with ten schools playing in the inaugural season: Boston College, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia. All of these schools had previously played as independents.

1992 - Florida State drops its long-time independent status and joins the ACC. Additionally, South Carolina re-joins the ACC, bringing the conference to ten members. Another independent, Akron, joins the MAC as its 10th member. The Big West also experiences some changes, as Long Beach State drops football and Fresno State leaves for the WAC. However, the conference does add Division 1-A newcomer Nevada. Arkansas State also joins Division 1-A, as an independent.

In addition to this conference realignment, college football's postseason is also reformed. A Bowl Coalition is established, consisting of seven bowl games guaranteeing bids to the champions of the eight major conferences, as follows: Rose - Big Ten and Pac-10, Sugar - SEC, Orange - Big Eight, Cotton - SWC, Fiesta - Big East, Citrus - ACC, and Holiday - WAC. The remaining six at-large bids are awarded to the six next highest ranked teams in the "Bowl Poll", a simple adding of the points for each team in the AP and Coaches polls. Following the bowl games, the Bowl Poll is calculated again, with the two highest ranked teams playing each other in a national championship game.

1993 - More changes in the Big West, as Cal State Fullerton drops its football program, and Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Northern Illinois, and Southwest Louisiana - all previously independents - join the conference.

1994 - Northeast Louisiana joins Division 1-A as an independent.

1995 - North Texas joins Division 1-A as an independent.

1996 - Significant changes alter the landscape of college football forever. The Big Eight expands to become the Big 12, pulling Arkansas, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech from the Southwest Conference. The Big 12 becomes the first conference to establish a conference championship game, splitting into North and South Divisions. The SWC survives by adding five independents (Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis State, Tulane and Tulsa) to the five remaining Texas schools. Elsewhere, the WAC also expands to 12 schools, splits into divisions, and creates a conference championship game, adding San Jose State and UNLV from the Big West. The Big West - which also sees Pacific drop its football program and Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Northern Illinois and Southwest Louisiana all return to independent status - staves off extinction by adding independent North Texas as well as Division 1-A newcomers Boise State and Idaho. Lastly, UAB and Central Florida join Division 1-A as independents.

1997 - The MAC becomes the latest conference to expand to 12 schools, split into divisions, and establish a conference championship game, welcoming independent Northern Illinois and Division 1-A newcomer Marshall.

1999 - The Southwest Conference expands to 12 schools by adding independents UAB and Southern Miss. This allows the conference to split into divisions and establish a conference championship game. Elsewhere, Arkansas State rejoins the Big West as its seventh member. The MAC expands to 13 schools, adding Division 1-A newcomer Buffalo. Middle Tennessee State joins Division 1-A as an independent.

2000 - Connecticut and South Florida join Division 1-A as independents. Nevada leaves the Big West to become the WAC's 13th member.

2001 - The Big West finally drops football, leaving Idaho, New Mexico State and Utah State to play as independents. Boise State joins the WAC as its 14th member. Meanwhile, the Sun Belt Conference begins sponsoring football, with former Big West members Arkansas State and North Texas joining six schools that had been playing in Division 1-A as independents: East Carolina, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Middle Tennessee State, Central Florida and South Florida. Lastly, Troy joins Division 1-A as an independent.

2004 - Connecticut joins the Big East for football, becoming the 11th program. Florida Atlantic and Florida International join Division 1-A as independents.

2005 - Temple is expelled from the Big East and becomes an independent; the Big East returns to having just ten schools. The Southwest Conference expands to 14 schools by adding Central Florida and South Florida from the Sun Belt. The Sun Belt responds by adding independents Florida Atlantic and Florida International, as well as Marshall from the MAC.

2007 - The MAC gets back to 13 schools, welcoming independent Temple.

2008 - Western Kentucky joins FBS as an independent.

2009 - Western Kentucky becomes the 10th member of the Sun Belt Conference.

2012 - Four new schools join FBS. Three of them become independents - South Alabama, Texas State and UTSA. The fourth, UMass, joins the MAC as its 14th school.

2013 - Georgia State and Old Dominion join FBS as independents.

2014 - The arrival of Appalachian State and Georgia Southern to FBS leads the American South Conference to begin sponsoring football. They are joined by six schools that had been playing as independents: Georgia State, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, and UTSA. Meanwhile, Old Dominion joins the Sun Belt as its 11th member.

2015 - FBS newcomer Charlotte becomes the 12th Sun Belt member. The conference splits into divisions and creates a conference championship game.

2017 - Coastal Carolina joins the American South as an FBS newcomer, bringing the conference to nine schools.

2018 - Independent Idaho drops down to FCS. Liberty joins FBS as an independent.

2020 - The current FBS conference alignment is as follows:

American South Conference
Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas-San Antonio, Texas State, Troy

Atlantic Coast Conference
Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina State, South Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest

Big 12 Conference
South Division: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
North Division: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska

Big East Conference
Boston College, Connecticut, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia (plus Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova as non-football members)

Big Ten Conference
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Independents
Army, Liberty, Navy, New Mexico State, Utah State

Mid-American Conference
East Division: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts, Miami (OH), Ohio, Temple
West Division: Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

Pacific-10 Conference
Arizona, Arizona State, California, California-Los Angeles, Oregon, Oregon State, Southern California, Stanford, Washington, Washington State

Southeastern Conference
Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Southwest Conference
West Division: Baylor, Houston, Rice, Southern Methodist, Texas Christian,  Tulane, Tulsa
East Division: Alabama-Birmingham, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, South Florida, Southern Mississippi

Sun Belt Conference
East Division: Charlotte, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Marshall, Old Dominion
West Division: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, Western Kentucky

Western Athletic Conference
East Division: Air Force, Brigham Young, Colorado State, New Mexico, Texas-El Paso, Utah, Wyoming
West Division: Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, Nevada-Las Vegas, San Diego State, San Jose State

Monday, October 19, 2020

What if?: Four 16-Team Superconferences

When I did my original college football realignment scenario two years ago, I noted the possibility that the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC could all expand to 16 teams, and that the Big 12 could cease to exist as a result. I thought today that it would be a good idea to explore what this could exactly look like, under a scenario where the Power conferences break off and form their own division separate from FBS (as has been discussed very recently).

The obvious approach would be to simply divide up the current Big 12 teams between the other four conferences. Let's see how that might play out:

West Virginia to ACC

West Virginia is the obvious choice to get the ACC to 16 schools (assuming we count Notre Dame as the 15th school). It's the only Big 12 school within ACC territory. It also is a former Big East school, like 6 current ACC members (Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Miami and Louisville).

Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State to Big Ten

Iowa State is an obvious choice, as it's within the Big Ten's current footprint and has an in-state rivalry with Iowa. Kansas and Kansas State are less obvious, but are the schools that would allow the Big Ten to remain contiguous. Adding three schools would bring the Big Ten to 17 schools, but we can expel Rutgers (easily the weakest Power 5 program) to bring it down to 16.

Oklahoma, Texas to SEC

This is the big one. The SEC is arguably the preeminent conference in college football, and Oklahoma and Texas are the two preeminent programs in the Big 12, so this seems like the natural landing spot for them. Their rivlarly would remain a conference game, while Texas would be reunited with Texas A&M.

Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech to Pac-12

The Pac-12 basically gets the leftovers here. However, there is some coherence; the conference would still be contiguous, after all. Oklahoma State and Baylor used to play with Colorado in the Big 12. TCU and Utah played together in the Mountain West Conference for a few years. Finally, Texas Tech played in the Border Conference with Arizona and Arizona State way back in the day. At the very least, we're able to keep the TCU-Baylor rivalry together.

Now, we could stop here. But what if we also shifted some programs within this new Power 4 alignment too?:

Maryland, Penn State to ACC

Maryland was a founding ACC member, and fits better in the ACC geographically than the Big Ten. Penn State also fits better here, and has a number of potential rivalry games (Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and now West Virginia and Maryland)

Notre Dame, Missouri to Big Ten

Replacing Penn State and Maryland in the Big Ten are Notre Dame and Missouri. Although Notre Dame is playing in the ACC this season, from a rivalry and geography perspective the Big Ten makes more sense. Notre Dame is in-state with Big Ten schools Indiana and Purdue, and has significant rivalries with both Michigan and Michigan State. Meanwhile, Missouri fits better in this version of the Big Ten than in the SEC, especially since it would be rejoined with four former Big Eight foes.

Louisville to SEC

Louisville is the only permanent ACC member not located in an East Coast state. Joining the SEC, where in-state rival Kentucky plays, would make more sense.

Let's take a look at what our new conferences would look like:

ACC
North Division: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Penn State, West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech
South Division: UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami

The ACC would be restored to consisting entirely of teams on the East Coast. We could also get rid of the ridiculous Atlantic/Coastal divisional alignment. The North division has an old school Big East flavor to it, with five founding Big East members there plus newcomer Penn State and core ACC schools Maryland and Virginia. The South reunites the four Tobacco Road schools in the same division. Also reunited in the same division are Clemson-Georgia Tech and Florida State-Miami.

SEC
East Division: Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Louisville, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida
West Division: Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

The arrival of newcomers Oklahoma and Texas in the West pushes Alabama and Auburn to the East. We put Louisville in the East with in-state rival Kentucky. Vanderbilt is split from Tennessee and pushed to the West to keep the Alabama-Auburn pairing together. Texas rejoins old SWC rivals Texas A&M and Arkansas in the West. Both divisions are pretty stacked, with the East being perhaps a bit deeper.

Big 16
East Division: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern.
West Division: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Iowa State, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State

The East is stacked with blue blood programs in the newly christened "Big 16", with Notre Dame replacing Penn State. Indiana and Purdue are no longer split between divisions, while Illinois and Northwestern also join the East to accommodate the newcomers out West. The West is now dominated by five former Big Eight schools, along with the Wisconsin-Minnesota-Iowa triumvirate.

Pac-16
East Division: Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech
West Division: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

This is basically an old school/new school split. The West consists of the original PCC/Pac-8 schools, while the East would include the schools to have joined since 1978.

In terms of scheduling, each team would play all seven of their divisional opponents every year, plus two cross-divisional games (which would rotate on a four-year schedule), for nine total conference games. They would also play three non-conference games, for twelve total regular season games.

The two divisional champions from each conference would play in a conference championship game. The winners of the four conference championships would receive automatic berths to the Rose or Sugar Bowls, which would serve as national semifinal games. Thus, you would have a de facto 8-team playoff.

As for the rest of the postseason bowls, we would match up each conference against each of the other three conferences twice, for six total bowl bids per conference. The bowl match-ups would be as follows:

National Championship: Rose Bowl champion vs. Sugar Bowl champion

Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA): Pac-16 #1 vs Big 16 #1
Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, LA): SEC #1 vs. ACC #1

Orange Bowl (Miami Gardens, FL): ACC #2 vs. Big 16 #2
Cotton Bowl (Arlington, TX): SEC #2 vs. Pac-16 #2

Citrus Bowl (Orlando, FL): SEC #3 vs Big 16 #3
Fiesta Bowl Glendale, AZ): Pac-16 #3 vs. ACC #3

Holiday Bowl (San Diego, CA): Pac-16 #4 vs. Big 16 #4
Peach Bowl (Atlanta, GA): SEC #4 vs. ACC #4

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, FL): ACC #5 vs. Big 16 #5
Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, TX): SEC #5 vs. Pac-16 #5

Hall of Fame Bowl (Tampa, FL): SEC #6 vs. Big 16 #6
Sun Bowl (El Paso, TX): Pac-16 vs #6 vs. ACC #6

Yet Another College Football Realignment Scheme: The 1991 Scenario

I have already posted multiple college football realignment proposals, but constantly come up with more, so here I am yet again. This proposal returns to the 8 10-team conference concept I've visited before. In this case, I've drawn heavily on the actual alignment scheme from the 1991 season, with a few modifications. I've chosen 1991 for a few reasons: 1) this was the first year that the Big East sponsored football; 2) this was the last year before the SEC expanded and split into divisions; 3) Penn State had not yet joined the Big Ten; and 4) the Southwest Conference still existed. 

Here's what I've come up with:

Big Ten
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa

SEC
Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, LSU

Pac-10
Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State

These three conferences would all just be their alignments exactly as they were in 1991.

SWC
Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, SMU, Rice, Houston, Arkansas, Tulane

The reborn Southwest Conference would consist of the 9 teams it had in 1991, along with one newcomer: Tulane. Tulane seems like a reasonable pick here. Geographically, Louisiana borders on both Arkansas and Texas, and adding Tulane would bring both the New Orleans media market and the state's recruiting territory more into the fold. Tulane is a private school like 4 existing SWC schools (Baylor, TCU, SMU, and Rice), and the school was cited as a potential expansion pick for the SWC at the end of it's existence. Lastly, Tulane does have an SEC pedigree, having been a founding member.

ACC
Maryland, Virginia, UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida State

The ACC would consist of the eight schools here in 1991, with two additions to get it to 10. Florida State is an obvious choice here, since they joined the ACC the following year anyway. South Carolina rejoins the ACC in this scenario, where it was a founding member, instead of joining the SEC. This restores the Clemson-South Carolina rivalry as a conference game.

Big Eight
Iowa State, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Utah, BYU

This one was slightly more challenging, as the Big Eight obviously had only 8 teams in 1991. Utah and BYU are the additions here. While this does expand the Big Eight's footprint, Utah does border on Colorado so it's not a huge deal. Utah currently plays in the Pac-12 with Colorado, and since the Pac-10 already has 10 schools this is only other logical place to put them. Adding BYU with Utah allows that rivalry to become a conference game. It's also worth noting that BYU was mentioned as a possible school to the join the Big 12 during the Big Eight/SWC merger talks.

Big East
Boston College, Syracuse, Rutgers, Temple, Penn State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame

This version of the Big East consists of the founding football members from 1991, plus two additions: Penn State and Notre Dame. Penn State fits well here both geographically and in terms of potential rivalry games, especially since they're locked out of the Big Ten in this scenario. As I've previously mentioned, Penn State missed admission to the Big East during the 1980s by one vote. Notre Dame also works well, as they are another strong independent program, similar in profile to Miami and Penn State pre-1991. Also worth noting that Notre Dame was a Big East member in all sports except football for quite a while. These two additions make this conference much stronger and more viable than the actual Big East was in practice.

American
Army, Navy, UCF, USF, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Air Force, Boise State, San Diego State

This is the one conference I had to make up from scratch, as no such alignment remotely existed in 1991. These are some of the strongest Group of 5 schools currently. Five schools here currently play in the American (Navy, UCF, USF, Cincinnati, and Memphis), while Louisville was a founding member before joining the ACC the following year. Joining Navy here are the other two service academies. Boise State and San Diego State were two of the schools the Big East tried to recruit as it was collapsing and transitioning to the American. Despite having only one current Power 5 school, this conference had 6 different schools finish in the final AP top 25 in 2019.

In terms of the postseason bowls, this proposal would use the same regional structure as my previous eight 10-team conference alignment, with the following conferences corresponding to each region's bowls:

West: Pac-10 vs. Big Ten
Southwest: SWC vs. Big Eight
Southeast: SEC vs. ACC
East: Big East vs American

One difference here is that I would use a similar playoff structure as I proposed for the 96-team alignment. So the quarterfinals would be:

Rose Bowl: Pac-10 vs. Big Ten
Cotton Bowl: SWC vs. Big Eight
Sugar Bowl: SEC vs. ACC
Orange Bowl: Big East vs American

As before, the Rose and Cotton Bowl winners would play in the Fiesta Bowl, and the Sugar and Orange winners would play in the Peach Bowl. The Fiesta and Peach winners would play in the national championship game.

Because the Fiesta and Peach Bowls are serving as semifinals, the Las Vegas and Independence Bowls replace them in their respective regions. Also, with the Rose, Cotton, Sugar and Orange Bowls serving as quarterfinals, the fifth place team in each conference would not get a bowl berth in this scenario.


A Modification to My Radical Realignment Scheme

Earlier this year, I published what I termed a "radical" realignment scheme for college football, consisting of 16 6-team conferences that would play double-round robin conference schedules. At the time, I mentioned that the postseason could simply be a seeded, 16-team "March Madness"-style playoff tournament consisting of the conference champions. However, I realize that a different approach may actually prove even more interesting.

Each of the 16 6-team conferences can easily be paired with another to form a two-division, 12-team conference. Here's what that would look like:

Pacific 12 Conference
North Division: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, BYU
South Division: Stanford, Cal, UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State

Mountain West Conference
West Division: Hawaii, San Jose State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Nevada, UNLV
Mountain Division: Boise State, Utah State, Wyoming, Colorado State, Air Force, New Mexico

Big 12 Conference
North Division: Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Arkansas
South Division: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Houston

Big Ten Conference
West Division: Minnesota, Iowa, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois
East Division: Purdue, Indiana, Notre Dame, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State

Big East Conference
West Division: Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt, Penn State, West Virginia, Maryland
East Division: UConn, UMass, Army, Rutgers, Temple, Navy

Atlantic Coast Conference
North Division: Virginia, Virginia Tech, UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest
South Division: Clemson, South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Florida, Miami

Southeastern Conference
South Division: LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia
North Division: Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

American Athletic Conference
East Division: Appalachian State, East Carolina, Central Florida, South Florida, FAU, FIU
West Division: Tulsa, TCU, Baylor, Rice, SMU, Tulane

Under this modified proposal, each division would still play a double-round robin regular season schedule. The winner of each division would play each other for the conference championship. The winners of each conference championship would advance to the playoff quarterfinals, with set bowl match-ups against another conference champion, as follows:

Rose Bowl: Pac-12 vs Big Ten
Cotton Bowl: Mountain West vs American
Sugar Bowl: SEC vs Big 12
Orange Bowl: ACC vs Big East

The semifinals would pit the Rose and Cotton Bowl winners against each other in the Fiesta Bowl, while the Sugar and Orange Bowl winners would play in the Peach Bowl. The winners of the Fiesta and Peach Bowls would then play each other for the national championship.

In addition to the playoff bowls, each conference would send three other teams to bowl games, for a total of 32 bowl berths among the 96 teams in this proposal. The conference championship losers would play in the following bowl games:

Holiday Bowl: Pac-12 vs Big Ten
Bluebonnet Bowl: Mountain West vs American
Liberty Bowl: SEC vs Big 12
Citrus Bowl: ACC vs Big East

The runners-up in each division per conference would play each other in a play-in game for the next set of bowls:

Aloha Bowl: Pac-12 vs Big Ten
Sun Bowl: Mountain West vs American
All-American Bowl: SEC vs Big 12
Gator Bowl: ACC vs Big East

Finally, the third place finishers in each division would also play each other for the spots in this set of bowls:

Las Vegas Bowl: Pac-12 vs Big Ten
Alamo Bowl: Mountain West vs American
Independence Bowl: SEC vs Big 12
Hall of Fame Bowl: ACC vs Big East


Tuesday, July 14, 2020

An Even More Radical College Football Realignment Scheme

Nearly two years ago, I laid out my proposal for a dramatic realignment of the FBS level of NCAA football. Today, inspired by Sports Illustrated's recent (and, frankly, awful) realignment plan, I've gone back to the drawing board and come up with something even more radical than before. After playing around with ideas for modifying the existing conference structures, I kept coming up with a group of six northeastern schools that would be difficult to fit into conferences: UConn, UMass, Army, Rutgers, Temple, and Navy. I thought it would be interesting if they had a little conference of their own, and even more interesting if they played a double-round robin conference schedule (ie two games against each conference opponent, one home and one away, for a total of ten conference games). Spurred on by this idea, I decided to try to see if I could do something similar with other groupings of schools. This is what formed the basis of the proposal laid out below.

As I've already mentioned the core concept here is the six-team conference playing a double round-robin schedule. From this, I was able to come up with 16 such conferences, for a total of 96 schools. This includes every Power Five school, all of the schools from the Mountain West and American Conferences, and some independent, CUSA and Sun Belt Conference schools to round out the list. As I see it, this plan represents a throwback to the past, a continuation of current trends, and something completely novel all at once.

In terms of being a return to college football tradition, the conferences are all heavily based on geography, and more specifically geographic rivalries. This is a far cry from the sprawling, geographically nonsensical conference alignments of the present day (why on Earth is West Virginia in the Big 12??). Travel distances would be greatly reduced in every conference, with most schools not having to go more than a state or two over to play a conference game. In the age of COVID-19, this kind of arrangement may well become necessary to begin with.

As a continuation of current trends, this proposal would see the expansion of the College Football Playoff from four to sixteen teams. Let's consider that an expansion to eight teams is almost an inevitability at this point, so sixteen isn't really all that far-fetched, and would only meaning adding one potential game to a given team's schedule if we get rid of conference championship games. I for one would love to see a "March Madness" style FBS tournament, especially if it gives smaller schools an opportunity to play Cinderella while still generally seeing the blue bloods come out on top, as this proposal likely would.

The novel element of this plan is the double round-robin conference schedule. As far as I'm aware this has not been implemented by an FBS conference before, certainly not in recent times. Usually the only time two teams would play each other twice is if they met again in a conference title game. The only example I could find of this being done intentionally in the regular season is the current series between New Mexico State and Liberty - and that one is only because both teams are independents who need to fill out their schedules. Yet I don't think this plan is as outlandish as it may seem at first. Divisional rivals in the NFL get to play each other twice despite playing only a 16-game schedule, and college basketball conferences have traditionally used a double round-robin format. I don't think anyone would argue that getting to see a Cowboys-Giants or Duke-UNC game twice a year is a bad thing. Now imagine if you could have Ohio State-Michigan or Alabama-Auburn twice a year, instead of having one of those games being Ohio State-Rutgers or Alabama-Vanderbilt instead. Having smaller conferences would make this possible, while still allowing for two non-conference games to be played every year. And even with the smaller conferences, I found that most of the major rivalries within conferences could still be maintained.

So, without any further ado, here's what these conferences would look like. Note that the conference names are just placeholders to help distinguish the conferences from one another:

Northwest Conference
Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, BYU

Made up of five Pac-12 schools (four from the North division alone) and one independent, this conference would have the potential to be one of the strongest in this new alignment. The key rivalries here are the in-state ones: Washington-Washington State, Oregon-Oregon State, and Utah-BYU, the latter of which would be a conference game for the first time since 2010; Washington-Oregon would be the other key rivalry. This would be one of the few conferences where the states are not geographically contiguous.

Far West Conference
Stanford, Cal, UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State

This conference would be completely composed of schools from the Pac-12, four of them from the South division. The four California schools are all reunited here with their key rivalries (Stanford-Cal, Cal-UCLA, UCLA-USC, and USC-Stanford), while Arizona and Arizona State are kept together.

Pacific West Conference
Hawaii, San Jose State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Nevada, UNLV

This is literally the West division of the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State maintains its rivalries with San Diego State, San Jose State, and Hawaii, while Nevada and UNLV are also kept together. Probably one of the weaker conferences here.

Rocky Mountain Conference
Boise State, Utah State, Wyoming, Colorado State, Air Force, New Mexico

This is likewise the Mountain division of the MWC, and also a relatively weak conference. We see a fairly low concentration of major rivalries, the biggest being Utah State-Wyoming, Wyoming-Colorado State, and Colorado State-Air Force. I would have liked to put Boise State elsewhere (as I did with my previous proposal) but can't really make that work here.

Great Plains Conference
Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Arkansas

This conference is loaded with rivalries from the old Big Eight - Nebraska alone would have rivalry games against Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri, while we also have Kansas-Kansas State and Kansas-Missouri. Arkansas is a bit of an awkward fit, though at least they'd have the opportunity to continue building their rivalry with Missouri.

Central Conference
Minnesota, Iowa, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois

Five of these six schools hail from the Big Ten West, giving us a number of rivalries: Minnesota-Wisconsin, Wisconsin-Iowa, Iowa-Minnesota, and Northwestern-Illinois. Meanwhile, Iowa-Iowa State is made a conference game. Arguably one of the stronger conferences in this alignment.

Great Lakes Conference
Purdue, Indiana, Notre Dame, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State

Probably one of the two strongest conferences here (along with the Deep South). Five of the schools are from the Big Ten, and four from the East division alone. Michigan-Ohio State is one of the greatest rivalries in sports, while you also maintain the Michigan-Michigan State, Purdue-Indiana, and Indiana-Michigan State rivalries. Adding Notre Dame to the mix allows them to play existing rivals Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue, and potentially build an in-state rivalry with Indiana.

Appalachian Conference
Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt, Penn State, West Virginia, Maryland

We restore four core schools of the old Big East here. A very high concentration of rivalry games, as Syracuse, Pitt, Penn State ,and West Virginia are all rivals with each other. We also see the Boston College-Syracuse, Penn State-Maryland, and West Virginia-Maryland rivalries here.

North Atlantic Conference
UConn, UMass, Army, Rutgers, Temple, Navy

The conference that formed the basis for this whole idea, this may ironically be the weakest of all of them. This also has the fewest rivalry games, with only UConn-UMass and Army-Navy counting as such currently. However, I believe Rutgers-Temple would have obvious rivalry potential, and the geographic proximity and relatively similar strength of these programs overall makes me think this could actually work quite well.

Tidewater Conference
Virginia, Virginia Tech, UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest

Another conference with a high concentration of rivalries, mainly due to all of the Tobacco Road schools being each other's rivals. We also have the Virginia-Virginia Tech and UNC-Virginia rivalries here. I think these ACC schools would benefit greatly from being out of the shadow of the Clemson Goliath.

South Atlantic Conference
Clemson, South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Florida, Miami

This conference combines four ACC and two SEC schools, although South Carolina was actually a founding member of the ACC as well. The three Florida schools are all each other's rivals, and we also get Clemson's rivalries with Florida State, South Carolina and Georgia Tech. I would have loved to fit Georgia in here somehow, but I think this works nonetheless.

Deep South Conference
LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia

Not only is this the strongest conference here - consisting entirely of SEC blue bloods - but also the one with the highest concentration of rivalries. Literally every single one of Alabama's conference games would be considered a rivalry game. We also get LSU's rivalries with Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Auburn, as well as the Ole Miss-Mississippi State rivalry. Georgia has the fewest here, counting "just" Alabama and Auburn as rivals. This would be an extremely entertaining conference schedule to watch.

Upland Conference
Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

An interesting conference with a relatively high rivalry density, I'm sure many of these programs would be glad to have their own spotlight for once, especially the three SEC schools here. Louisville, Cincinnati, and Memphis are all rivals of each other, as are Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee. Louisville-Kentucky would be made a conference game for the first time, and Memphis would have the opportunity to build rivalries with its in-state foes as well.

Magnolia Conference
Tulsa, TCU, Baylor, Rice, SMU, Tulane

A riff off of the old "Southern Ivies" concept of the 1950s and 1960s, all of these are private schools based in the South. These schools are historically connected through their various associations in the SWC, CUSA, and the American Conference. There's already a few rivalries here, including Baylor-TCU, TCU-SMU, and SMU-Rice.

Red River Conference
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Houston

Five of these six schools have direct ties to the Big 12, while Houston played in the SWC, the Big 12's predecessor. Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech all have rivalries with each other, while Oklahoma's rivalries with Texas and Oklahoma State are also present.

Southern Coast Conference
Appalachian State, East Carolina, Central Florida, South Florida, FAU, FIU

I feel like this conference could be called "The Leftovers", as we are forced to throw together the three remianing American Conference schools with schools from CUSA and the Sun Belt in order to round out our 96-school pool. This produces one of the only non-contiguous conferences in this proposal. However, these schools are actually decently strong, with FAU and App State dominating their respective conferences over the past few years and UCF emerging as one of the best Group of Five schools in the country. There's also a couple of rivalries here, particularly UCF-USF and FAU-FIU, as well as a burgeoning rivalry between UCF and ECU. I could see in-state rivalries forming between App State and ECU as well as between the four Florida schools as a whole.


While this proposal may have originated simply as a curiosity, I genuinely feel that this plan has legitimate merit. Think of all the advantages over the current system: a higher concentration of rivalry games, stronger overall quality of games, a fairer shot for more teams to be in contention for a championship, and far more more games that are relevant late into the season. What more could you ask for?

Friday, November 23, 2018

The (Almost) Perfect NCAA FBS Realignment Plan

In today's college football landscape, the trend is toward increasingly consolidated superconferences. For instance, the last wave of realignment led to the expansion of the Big Ten, ACC, and SEC to 14 teams each, while the Pac-10 expanded to 12 and was renamed the Pac-12. These moves mostly came at the expense of the Big 12, which contracted to 10 teams, and the Big East, which split into a basketball conference and a football conference (the current American Athletic Conference). When the next wave of realignment comes (likely in the 2020s), it is quite possible that the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 expand to 16 teams each, with the Big 12 possibly ceasing to exist altogether.

It is understandable why the so-called "power" conferences want to expand: more programs means more television markets, which in turn means greater television revenue. As just one example, how else could we explain the Big Ten's addition of Rutgers other than the desire of the Big Ten to expand into the New York City television market?

Whatever benefits the conferences and individual programs may accrue from these trends, I would argue that college football as a whole is negatively affected. Conference expansion has broken up traditional regional conference rivalries. Expansion has also necessitated the creation of divisions within conferences, leading to unbalanced conference schedules and lopsided outcomes in conference championship games. The concentration of the strongest programs in just a handful of conferences means that most games at the FBS level have little if any meaning in terms of determining a national champion.

On the other hand, one of the more positive recent trends in college football has been the creation of the four team College Football Playoff (CFP) to replace the old top-two BCS system for determining a national champion. The BCS itself replaced a system in which there was no national championship game at all and champions were determined purely through the highly subjective polls. However, the new CFP system still has glaring issues - at least one Power Five conference champion will not have a chance to play for a national championship in any given year, while it's still nearly impossible for a Group of Five school to make it in at all (as we saw happen to an undefeated UCF team last year). Even a potential expansion of the playoff to eight teams would not fully resolve the issues with the system - consider how much subjectivity would still go into determining the two at-large spots under that hypothetical scenario.

With these points in mind, I set out to completely revamp the FBS level of NCAA college football. The system I devised would be fairly simple: there would now be eight 10-team conferences, with the winner of each conference getting an automatic bid to an eight team playoff to determine the national championship. Each team would play a single round-robin against the other nine teams in its conference during the regular season, and the team with the best conference record would be named the conference champion. (Ties would be broken by head-to-head record.) No conference would be divided into divisions, and no conference championship games would be played. Subjective rankings would be used only to determine the seeds for the playoff. Even with the addition of an extra playoff round, teams would still only play a maximum of 15 games in a season due to the elimination of the conference championships. In addition to the nine conference games, teams would schedule three non-conference games, including a maximum of one game against an FCS opponent. With the contraction of the FBS from 130 to 80 programs, the other 50 programs (all of them Group of Five schools) would be dropped down to the FCS.

The conference alignment system I've created is based on historical conference affiliations, rivalries, geography, and program strength. The new conferences are summarized as follows.

Big East Conference
Rutgers, Temple, Penn State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Virginia, South Florida, UCF

The six italicized programs played in the Big East at some point in its history. Additionally, UCF currently plays in the American, the Big East's successor. Penn State sought to join the Big East in the 1980s when it was a basketball-only conference, but was rejected. Had it joined and then became a founding football member in the 1990s, the Big East may well have survived as a football conference. Maryland and Virginia have been cited as schools that may have followed Penn State into the Big East. There are a number of great intrastate rivalries here, including UCF-USF, Virginia-Virginia Tech, and Pitt-Penn State, as well as interstate rivalries like Pitt-West Virignia.

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Clemson, South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida, Florida State, Miami

The eight italicized programs currently play in the ACC. South Carolina was a founding member of the ACC; rejoining the conference would make Clemson-South Carolina a conference game again. Florida would join in-state rivals Florida State and Miami, while the four North Carolina schools are able to maintain their rivalries.

Southeastern Conference (SEC)
Kentucky, Louisville, Memphis, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia

The eight italicized programs currently play in the SEC. Louisville joins in-state rival Kentucky, while Memphis is given the opportunity to build rivalries with Tennessee and Vanderbilt and play in conference with rival Ole Miss. Great intrastate rivalries like Auburn-Alabama and Ole Miss-Mississippi State are preserved, along with interstate rivalries like Alabama-Georgia.

Big Ten Conference
Ohio State, Cincinnati, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa

The nine italicized programs currently play in the Big Ten. The only new face is Cincinnati, which would be given the chance to build an in-state rivalry with Ohio State. A number of great interstate and intrastate rivalries are preserved, including Ohio State-Michigan, Michigan-Michigan State, and Minnesota-Wisconsin.

Big Eight Conference
Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa State, Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Tulsa, Arkansas

The eight italicized programs were the original members of the Big Eight Conference. Tulsa would now be in conference with in-state rival Oklahoma State, while Arkansas could continue to build its rivalry with Missouri. Rivalries like Colorado-Nebraska and Missouri-Kansas are restored as conference games, while in-state rivalries are maintained in Kansas-Kansas State and Oklahoma-Oklahoma State.

Southwest Conference (SWC)
Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Houston, Baylor, Rice, SMU, TCU, LSU, Tulane

The eight italicized programs were members of the original SWC. Bringing these eight Texas schools back together in the same conference would restore a number of in-state rivalries, including Houston-Rice, SMU-TCU, and Texas-Texas A&M. LSU-Tulane is also restored as a conference rivalry, while LSU would be able to maintain its rivalry with Texas A&M.

Pacific-10 Conference (Pac-10)
Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Boise State

The nine italicized programs are current members of the Pac-12. Boise State would finally be given the opportunity to play in a major conference. A number of in-state rivalries are preserved, including Washington-Washington State, Oregon-Oregon State, Cal-UCLA, and Arizona-Arizona State.

American Conference
USC, Stanford, BYU, Air Force, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Navy, Army, Syracuse, Boston College

This conference is no relation to the current American Athletic Conference. Instead, it is loosely based on the proposed "Airplane Conference" of 1959; the six italicized programs were part of that plan. This conference would bring the three service academies together in conference, as well as the seven private FBS schools of the west and north. Notre Dame, a long-time independent, would now have conference games against a number of its rivals, including Army, Navy, USC, Stanford, Northwestern, and Boston College. Meanwhile, Syracuse-Boston College and USC-Stanford are maintained as conference games. BYU, another large religious school and long-time independent, rounds out the conference nicely.

Overall, I believe this alignment would be a massive improvement over the current system. It would restore the geographic basis for conferences, bring back a number of historic conference rivalries, and potentially even create new rivalries. Having smaller conferences would reduce the concentration of the strongest programs in just a few conferences, bringing a degree of parity back to the college football landscape. Current Group of Five schools like Boise State and UCF would now have a legitimate chance to compete for a national title. Above all, conference championships would be given greater priority than subjective ranking systems, as winning the conference would give a program a bid in the playoff automatically - in other words, win and you're in. While it's highly unlikely that such an arrangement would ever actually come to pass, one can dream, right?